Many people say losing money is due to their insufficient understanding. There are indeed differences in understanding among people, but is there any threshold for acquiring understanding? I think there isn’t. If I lack understanding, my method is to directly spend money to consult those who have achieved success. I will ask 10 people, and if their answers are consistent, then that answer must be the industry truth, and I will follow that truth in my operations.
First, the conclusion: making money in the cryptocurrency world relies on luck, don’t talk about lofty understandings. If you realize that making money in the cryptocurrency world depends on luck, I can’t say you will make big money, but I can say you will no longer suffer big losses from now on. Luck accounts for 99%, while understanding + capital only accounts for 1%. Because I have personally seen people with no understanding and little capital make a lot of money relying on luck.
The luck being referred to here is essentially a trend. For instance, no matter how high your understanding or how much capital you have, in a bear market, you won’t make money playing anything. Because the market is stagnant, without fluctuations, there are no profits. Hoarding coins, no matter how much money you have or how high your understanding is, in a bear market, there are more drops than rises; you can't make money by hoarding. Trading, options, grid trading, or quantitative trading almost never make money, with profits being negligible.
Making big money in the cryptocurrency world relies on luck. If you hoard coins hard for three years in a bear market, and in the fourth year a bull market comes, suddenly rising 5-10 times, isn’t that luck? Because one cannot control the market trends; a bull market is a form of luck. When luck arrives, if you are in the right position, you will be taken along.
If a person believes they are making money through skill, they certainly won’t make much in the cryptocurrency world. Even those high-leverage contract players, making 1 million dollars in a month, are also relying on luck; their strategy just happens to align with the market rhythm. You should know that countless strategies are running simultaneously, where others lose more than they gain, and his strategy just happened to work out. Once the market rhythm changes, he will also lose money.
If you don’t believe it, you can conduct an experiment: go to Binance's simulation trading, starting with 10,000 USDT, choose the person with the highest returns over 30 days, and observe the copy trading results over 1-3 months. I followed 7 people, and 5 lost money. What else could this be if not luck?
A person's greatest understanding is knowing when luck arrives, entering when luck comes, and exiting when luck fades. Capital is merely a means of production, not a deciding factor. Because everyone has capital, but not everyone can make money. With the understanding of recognizing luck, combined with luck and capital, when all three circles align, you should be making money.
What I’m saying is to tell you: don’t rely on skill to make money; the cryptocurrency world relies on luck. Where capital flows, which sectors are growing, indicates where luck lies, and you should wait there for luck. For example, what is the point of guarding inscriptions now? Luck has already come and gone. Waiting for it to return is not a foolish gamble? I see some people still asking how about buying EOS; luck has left it for 8 years, yet you still buy it? No matter how much capital or trading skills you have, can you make money? Recognizing luck's return and then participating is true skill.
Luck is something that is awaited. For example, when altcoins are about to surge, it’s because Bitcoin’s market cap share has continuously declined, and Bitcoin is no longer surging. At this point, if you recognize the luck of altcoins arriving and participate, you end up profiting; that is the result of luck. If you charge in without signs of a launch, and then buy more when it drops, eventually profiting from the surge, that belongs to the macro luck of the industry, where you firmly believe that memes have a future and that there will be a bull market afterward, rather than recognizing luck. But how many people have such determination? Moreover, the premise of doing this is that you can only allocate a portion of your position to do it; the bulk of your position should always be in BTC. From a macro perspective, knowing BTC won't go to zero, if it drops, you just wait. But giving up allocation and rushing into memes will ultimately lead to disastrous losses.
I have a boss who bought 40 million yuan worth of BTC, sold it all for less than 90,000, and didn’t make much money. Now someone tells him he can make money with quantitative strategies, and he is very regretful for missing out on BTC's subsequent gains. That person claims quantitative can achieve an annualized return of 50-100%, but did not mention the prerequisites. He asked me if it’s feasible, and I said quantitative is just a strategy algorithm, using programs to replace human operations to avoid emotional influences; without market luck, you can’t make money. Handing money over to others means profits are split 25%; if losses occur, they don’t bear the cost, but if profits arise, they take 25%. This is to believe in technology while neglecting the more important fact that market luck is crucial. This doesn’t even account for the risk of principal.
Those who make money in the cryptocurrency world, crazily flaunting their earnings and account assets, claiming their skills are impressive and their analysis is brilliant, are not speaking the truth; it's just a result of luck, mere nonsense. If you truly believe it, you will definitely suffer losses. They never say that relying on luck is not genuine skill; if it’s just luck, then that’s the truth.
What I write is to fundamentally change your worldview of the cryptocurrency space: do not easily think that others’ trading skills are impressive. The fundamental reason for making money in the cryptocurrency world is luck; only skilled individuals can recognize where luck is and will also optimize strategies based on luck, allowing themselves to go further. They have experience and can always seize opportunities, accumulating wealth through waves of market trends.
