Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks, while Gemini has received regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry coalition. Changpeng Zhao aims for 220 million users through BNB Chain. The war among giants for the throne of the $15 billion prediction market has officially begun.
Coinbase unveils a key letter in the 'Everything App' strategy
According to some sources, Coinbase will officially announce the prediction markets and tokenized equity services during an event on December 17. The tokenized shares will be launched internally, not through external partners.
Coinbase executives had already expressed interest in entering these sectors, but there had never been official announcements. However, expectations have grown as screenshots referring to these features have begun circulating on the social network X in recent weeks. A Coinbase spokesperson declined to comment on specific strategies, merely stating: “Tune in on December 17 to find out what new products Coinbase will launch.”
This initiative is part of Coinbase's “everything app” strategy, which aims to provide traders access to a wide range of assets and markets, keeping pace with competitors that are diversifying their offerings. Robinhood launched Kalshi's prediction market products earlier this year, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized stocks and US ETFs outside the United States.
Trading of tokenized equities is growing rapidly. According to rwa.xyz, the monthly transfer volume has increased by 32% in the last 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
The Industry Coalition CPM is launched: “A unified voice is needed”
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a national alliance among prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and the sports gaming platform Underdog have joined as founding members.
Matt David, executive board member of the CPM, emphasized: “The United States is the most important frontier for prediction markets, and the moment we are experiencing makes a unified voice from the industry not only important but necessary.”
The coalition will focus on strengthening the federal regulatory framework for prediction markets, establishing national integrity standards to curb insider trading, and combating excessive state-level regulation.
Sara Slane, head of business development at Kalshi and executive member of the coalition, explained in detail: “We have worked for years with the CFTC because prediction markets need to operate with solid federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure transparency and lack of corruption in these markets.” The coalition also stated that other companies are negotiating to join.
Gemini receives CFTC approval, shares surge by 28%
The Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss twins, is also joining the battle over prediction markets. Gemini Space Station Inc. has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives exchange.
The approval allows Gemini to offer trading services on event contracts to current US customers via its website and mobile app. In regulatory documents related to its public listing, Gemini had included prediction markets on “economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts” among its products of interest.
Gemini stated that it will “evaluate the possibility of expanding its derivative offerings for US customers to include futures, options, and perpetual contracts on crypto.” Following the approval announcement, Gemini shares rose by up to 28% in after-hours trading.
The authorization is among the latest moves by the agency with interim chair Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as an advocate for the digital asset sector and has taken numerous initiatives to advance crypto trading on platforms regulated by the CFTC. Pham has also announced that Tyler Winklevoss will participate in the agency's CEO Innovation Council, which also includes Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ steps into the spotlight of prediction markets
The founder of Binance, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), is also expanding his territory in prediction markets. On December 4, CZ posted on X the news of a new prediction market coming to BNB Chain. A key feature of this platform is that user funds generate returns while waiting for event outcomes. The platform is backed by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in more than 300 projects worldwide.
One day earlier, Trust Wallet, also controlled by CZ, launched the Predictions feature. The Web3 protocol for prediction markets, Myriad, was the first integration partner, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends directly from the app. Trust Wallet's user base counts 220 million people.
BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market provider backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs received a multi-million dollar investment at Binance Blockchain Week. In the first quarter of 2025, they completed a $5 million seed funding round led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media enters the competition with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of former president Donald Trump, is also entering the prediction market sector. The company aims to launch “Truth Predict” on its social network Truth Social, allowing users to bet on events ranging from political elections to changes in inflation rates.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to process bets and will also offer wagers on commodity prices and events from all major sports leagues. Initial tests will begin “shortly,” followed by a full launch in the US and finally global expansion.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former Republican congressman, stated: “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we are democratizing information and empowering ordinary Americans to leverage the wisdom of the crowd.”
The race for the $15 billion throne
Prediction markets have exploded since a federal court overturned the ban on electoral betting last year. The weekly notional volume of trades on Polymarket and Kalshi has surpassed the peak recorded during last year's US presidential elections, reaching new records.
Investor interest is sky-high. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled after the latest funding round, reaching $11 billion. Polymarket is also reportedly looking to raise funds with a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring how to enter this market. The monthly transfer volume for tokenized shares has increased by 32% in the last 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against the New York gaming commission, arguing that the state agency is overstepping its powers by attempting to regulate sports betting activities that fall exclusively under federal jurisdiction. Sports betting remains illegal in nearly a dozen US states, and legal challenges regarding the legality of prediction markets are on the rise.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and the newly formed industry coalition — the battle among giants for the $15 billion throne has just begun.
