Rebound or turning point, key positions to watch closely
On Monday, we judged that Bitcoin would start a rebound at the 1-hour level, targeting a push towards 94000, while also noting that the 4-hour level rebound is nearing its end. For the past two days, we have repeatedly reminded that around 90,000 is a good entry point for a long position, and last night I advised real trading students to pay attention to whether the 4-hour rebound would end after the interest rate cut took effect.
Today, Bitcoin fell as expected, but we cannot yet confirm 100% that the 4-hour correction has begun. After all, without the appearance of a “second sell” signal, we cannot rule out the possibility of an extended rebound. However, the rebound that started from 80,000 has been in play for 19 days, theoretically the 4-hour rebound should have ended by now; we just need to patiently wait for clearer signals.
If a 4-hour level decline occurs later, will it break below 80,000? From the perspective of Chan theory, the risk of a “three sell” in the 4-hour central region has not been eliminated, and we need to be prepared for a drop to 80600, with the exact landing point still needing to be observed as we proceed.
The 1-hour level movement of Bitcoin is clear, showing an “aAb” consolidation pattern from 80600 to 94500: 80600-93000 is the entry segment a of the central region, and 93000-97700 forms the 1-hour central region A, with 87700 starting the exit segment b pushing up to 94500. Currently, the exit segment is diverging, with prices retracing within the central region, and the probability of a 4-hour decline is high.
However, returning to the central region does not mean the end of the rebound; it could also be an extension of the central region. If the subsequent 1-hour rebound does not create a new high, the 4-hour correction is basically confirmed; if it breaks below 87000 in the short term, it is highly likely to trigger a 4-hour decline, and the current 1-hour decline has not yet completed, with at least one more drop to come. At the 15-minute level, starting from last night’s spike high, the daytime rebound is nearing its end, and there will be a third wave of decline, with a key focus on whether it can break below 87000.
Ethereum usually follows Bitcoin, and this time it unexpectedly reached a high of 3447. After breaking through 3435, the probability of not falling below 2620 has increased, but we still need to observe the market evolution. Currently, Ethereum is undergoing a 1-hour correction, which has not yet ended, with a key focus on 3100 below—if it breaks, the 1-hour central region’s “three buys” will disappear, and the probability of a 4-hour decline will greatly increase, noting that 3100 is a structural boundary rather than strong support.
Ethereum at the 15-minute level still has at least one wave of decline left, and according to the rhythm, this 1-hour correction is expected to last until tomorrow morning.
Trend Overview:
Weekly, daily: Direction downwards, daily decline has not ended, 71000 is unlikely to break
4-hour: Direction downwards, decline may have already started, further observation is needed
1-hour, 15-minute: Direction downwards, decline has not yet ended, pay attention to the subsequent strength $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹
