The two months of slow decline have made the market almost numb, and as a result, in the early hours of December 3, Bitcoin suddenly experienced a violent surge—from $84,000 directly to above $92,000, with an increase approaching 10%. Ethereum was even more vigorous, breaking through the $3,000 mark, with a daily increase of over 10%.
However, this rebound was not gentle; in 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $400 million, with 110,000 people directly kicked off the table. The most disastrous order occurred at a leading exchange, where a $13 million BTC contract instantly went to zero—this time, shorts were clearly educated.
This reversal actually had signs long ago. First, look at liquidity expectations: CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 surged from 35% to 89.2% within a week. The catalyst was the November PPI data, which was far below expectations, clearly easing inflationary pressures.
Although Trump's tariff policy may temporarily raise costs, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly hinted that they will still focus on a 'soft landing' before 2026 and will not easily turn hawkish. If there really is a rate cut this time, a weaker dollar combined with declining U.S. Treasury yields will likely push funds into risk assets like BTC.
More crucially, this could open the door for continuous rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. Smart money has already begun to position ahead for 'rate cut trades'—based on on-chain fund flows and institutional holdings changes, this rebound is not a flash in the pan, but rather an advance guard of a new trend.
