Is Bitcoin unable to drop further? Structural 'supply tightening' may brew the next round of market movement
Today, the cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a pattern of 'short-term fluctuations + long-term reconstruction'. Although Bitcoin is still fluctuating around $90,000, the underlying funding structure and supply status are showing increasingly noteworthy trends.
Recently, Bitcoin has attempted multiple times to break through the resistance of $92,000 to $94,000, but due to market uncertainty regarding interest rate decisions and weak ETF fund flows, the strength of short-term bulls has been insufficient, causing the price to briefly retreat. However, what truly holds indicator significance is not the rise or fall, but the signals provided by on-chain data:
The exchange-available Bitcoin inventory is continuously declining, reaching a phase of low levels.
This indicates that selling pressure is decreasing, and the number of circulating coins in the market is diminishing. Once there is any sustained buying from funds, it could trigger a chain reaction of 'supply tightening → price rising quickly'.
Looking at the funding structure:
High leverage and short-term speculative positions have mostly been cleared out during the previous rounds of sharp declines and liquidations. The funds that are still holding on at this point are mostly stable, long-term, and financially strong institutions and long-term holders. They are gradually replenishing their BTC and ETH positions at lower levels, preparing for future liquidity improvements.
In summary, the current market structure can be described as:
Prices are hesitant, but funds are sinking.
Sentiment is still anxious, but the bottom is quietly being built.
🔎 The next three crucial matters
① Whether the exchange BTC inventory continues to decline
If the trend continues, it is a strong signal that 'the supply side continues to tighten'.
② Whether institutional funds return
ETF subscriptions warming up = market confidence returning.
③ Whether the interest rate and liquidity turning points are clear
Once global funding risk appetite improves, crypto is one of the first assets to benefit.
Currently:
Short-term: dominated by fluctuations, sentiment is weak
Medium-term: improvement in funding structure + supply tightening is a potential rebound soil
Long-term: if the macro environment warms up, there is still hope to restart the upward cycle
This market movement is no longer an 'emotional bull', but a prelude to whether structural bull, supply bull, and institutional bull can truly take the stage.
