12.9 BTC Afternoon Market: Consolidation Awaiting Breakthrough, Strategy Focus on Stability
1. Market Support Points: Three Major Logic Foundations
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates tonight is 89.6%, and the market remains cautiously observant before the decision;
2. Institutional ETF continues to have net inflows, with whales constantly increasing positions, strong support at 89000-89500 USD, and selling pressure is significantly limited;
3. On the technical side, the market is fluctuating between 89000-92300 USD, with a 1-hour chart converging triangle awaiting a breakout, and moving averages and Fibonacci levels forming key offensive and defensive positions.
2. Trend Judgment: Mainly Consolidation, Waiting for Volume
From 12:00 to 16:30, it is highly likely to fluctuate within the 89500-91500 USD range, with no signals for a one-sided market; waiting for volume release to confirm direction is necessary.
3. Practical Operation Plan: Long and Short Strategies
1. Long (Main Direction): Actively buy in batches at 89500-90000 USD, stop-loss at 88800, targeting 91000-91500; for chasing long, wait for a breakout above 92300 with strong volume and stabilize for 5 minutes, stop-loss at 91800, target 93000.
2. Short (Auxiliary): Steadily short at 91500-92000 USD when encountering resistance, stop-loss at 92500, targeting 90000-89800;
For a breakdown short, wait for a drop below 89500 with weak rebound, stop-loss at 90000, target 88500-88000.
