On the morning of December 9, U.S. stocks experienced a volatile market ahead of the Federal Reserve's final interest rate meeting of the year, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow fell by 0.45%, the Nasdaq by 0.14%, and the S&P 500 by 0.35%. The market is holding its breath for Wednesday's policy decision, while the new agricultural assistance policy from the Trump administration and the structural differentiation in tech stocks add uncertainty to this year-end showdown.
Individual stock performance showed a clear 'polarization': Tesla fell over 3%, Google over 2%, reflecting that some tech giants still face valuation digestion pressure; meanwhile, Broadcom rose over 2%, and Nvidia and Microsoft rose over 1%, highlighting the core competitiveness of the AI industry chain. Despite ongoing discussions about an AI bubble, Nvidia continues to attract funds due to its irreplaceable chip supply advantage, and institutions predict it will maintain market dominance next year. Chinese concept stocks also showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly up 0.08%. Baidu and Miniso rose over 3%, while Xpeng Motors and New Oriental rose over 2%, demonstrating the resilience of some quality Chinese concept stocks. However, NetEase fell over 2%, reflecting the divergence in industry competition and performance expectations.
Commodities are under synchronized pressure, with COMEX gold futures down 0.54%, reported at $4219.9 per ounce, as safe-haven assets temporarily retreat during the policy window period. The core contradiction in the current market focuses on the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies: CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has reached 89.4%, but traders generally expect that there will be less than 75 basis points of rate cut space before the end of 2026. This expectation of "short-term easing, long-term constraints" makes funds hesitant to enter the market recklessly. Of greater concern is the significant internal division within the Federal Reserve; dovish officials worry about the deterioration of the labor market and advocate for rate cuts, while hawks are wary of inflation rebounding. This division may make Wednesday's decision and Powell's press conference full of "surprises". Dongwu Securities even predicts that there may be two scenarios of "dovish rate cuts" or "hawkish rate cuts", both of which could trigger market volatility.
Another major highlight from the White House is that Trump announced on the 8th to provide $12 billion in agricultural relief to offset the negative impact of tariff policies on domestic agriculture. This move is both a policy correction and has a clear intention to stabilize the economy, but whether it can offset market concerns about interest rate policies in the short term remains to be seen. In addition, the U.S. October PPI data has been delayed until January 14, 2026, to be released together with the November data, leading to a lack of key references for current inflation assessments, further exacerbating the market's cautious sentiment.
Looking at the end of the year, the fluctuations in the U.S. stock market essentially reflect a dual mapping of "policy uncertainty + structural transformation in industries": the AI boom drives tech giants to dominate market gains, but the "top-heavy" structure increases volatility; while expectations of interest rate cuts support risk appetite, concerns about the economic fundamentals and policy differences make upward trends difficult to achieve smoothly. For investors, the "shoe effect" after the Federal Reserve's decision, the rebalancing of valuations in the AI sector, and the performance fulfillment ability of Chinese concept stocks will be key clues to track in the coming period.
