Woken up by fan messages at three in the morning: "Old K, I have 2950 ETH fully shorted, now staring at the 3100 market, my hands are shaking!" Opened the market software and saw that yet another batch of friends were badly tricked by the 'false bears.' Last night's plunge from 3034 to 2903 trapped so many people into short positions, and the market quickly turned around and shot up to 3100, leaving all short position holders in "heartbreak mode."
First, let me give a reassuring pill to my brothers who are anxious and can't sleep: I've been watching the market until five in the morning, this rebound is not fake, but it’s also not a reason to hold on stubbornly. As someone who has been in the industry for six years, I've seen too many cases where people lost their capital because they stubbornly held on. Today, I'm sharing some valuable insights on how to exit positions; friends with different positions should follow along and stop making blind moves.
First, clarify a core judgment: from the perspective of trading volume and moving average patterns, this wave of pullback has already landed, and the short-term trend has completely strengthened. Friends who want to wait for the price to drop back to 2900 to break even will likely be disappointed. Next, let's handle it in two ways, which is 10 times more reliable than blindly averaging down.
The first situation is for those who can't sleep because their positions are too heavy, so reduce your holdings first; don’t hold on stubbornly! I know you’re unwilling, thinking 'if I just wait a bit longer, it will drop,' but in an upward trend, holding onto a short position is no different from dancing with a bomb. Listen to me, when it rebounds to the range of 3120-3150, first sell half of your position to reduce risk. For the remaining position, set a stop loss, and even if it really goes up again, it won’t let you lose significantly. Remember, as long as you’re alive, you have the chance to recover; stubbornly holding on will only lead to your complete exit.
The second situation is for those with light positions and still have bullets to buy on dips, pulling the average price down. If your short position only accounts for less than 20% of your capital, there's no need to panic. You can wait for the market to pull back to around 3080-3090, then add in the same amount of short positions as your original position. This way, your average cost will be pulled from 2950 to around 3015. Subsequently, as long as the market falls below 3050, you can exit in batches, which can reduce losses and, with a bit of luck, make a small profit. Here’s a reminder: don’t be greedy when averaging down; just do it once sufficiently and don’t keep adding more.
Here’s a heart-wrenching truth: there are no 'gods' in this market. The person who told you to chase shorts yesterday has likely disappeared today. The ones who can truly help you are not the ones who follow the crowd, but those who understand trends and develop effective response strategies. The most common trap in a bull market is 'sudden drops to lure shorts'. Many people are afraid to buy when prices rise and desperately short when they fall, ultimately getting repeatedly harvested by the market.
If you are scared from being trapped this time, or if you usually can’t pinpoint buy and sell points, following Yangyang is the right choice. Every day, I will compile market analysis and operational strategies into notes that can be directly used by both beginners and veteran players. I don’t draw a big pie of 'breaking ten thousand points’, but teach you to find certainty amid volatility, so that even if the market goes crazy, you can place orders calmly.
