Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is about to enter its third year. This conflict has resulted in over 2 million casualties and has triggered the most severe confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War. However, the outgoing U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg recently stated that the peace agreement has entered the 'final 10 meters,' with only two key disputes remaining unresolved: the ownership of the Donbas region and the handling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
At the same time, Russian President Putin has also stated that if the Ukrainian army does not withdraw from the disputed areas, the Russian military will use force to seize them, indicating that peace negotiations remain extremely challenging.
US envoy: the agreement is 'really close.'
Kellogg pointed out at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California that the peace process has entered its final stage, with only two major issues remaining. He stated: 'We are almost done. If we can resolve these two issues, the rest should not be difficult.'
The two major controversies are:
The final status of the Donbass region.
The control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the electricity distribution mechanism.
According to previously leaked American drafts, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with electricity output averaged and distributed to both Russia and Ukraine. However, the contents of the draft have not been made public, causing unease among Ukrainian and European officials, who believe too many concessions have been made.
Putin warns: if Ukrainian troops do not withdraw, it will be resolved by force.
After talks with American representatives Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, Putin emphasized in an interview in India that if Ukrainian troops do not withdraw from eastern territories, Russia will 'liberate' these areas by force. He said: 'Either we take back these areas by force, or the Ukrainian troops withdraw voluntarily.'
Putin's statement specifically targets the eastern Donbass region, where Russia currently controls over 80% of the territory. Since 2014, it has been in conflict with Ukraine. If the Russian side completes the occupation, it will establish a 'land corridor' connecting the Russian mainland to Crimea, which is crucial for its military and trade strategy.
The Russian side claims that residents support joining Russia, but the international community questions the fairness of the election.
In areas occupied by Russian troops, authorities held several so-called 'referendums on joining Russia,' claiming a support rate as high as 99%. However, these results are widely viewed by the international community as 'fake referendums' without a legitimate basis and conducted under war conditions, lacking space for free expression.
The initial version of the US-Russia draft did not incorporate Ukrainian opinions.
According to foreign media reports, the initial version of the peace proposal was drafted by Russian and American staff without Ukrainian representatives involved, even requiring Ukraine to cede Donbass and promising not to join NATO. After the draft was rewritten, Ukrainian opinions were included, but Putin has made it clear that he 'does not accept part of the content', saying negotiations are 'difficult work.'
Zelensky reiterates: sovereignty cannot be exchanged.
Ukrainian President Zelensky recently had a long phone conversation with Kushner and the American envoy, reiterating multiple times that any peace agreement must 'respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity,' and ceding territory would be a 'politically unviable concession.'
Peace is 'not very likely' in the short term.
Marnie Howlett, a scholar of Russian and Eastern European politics at Oxford University, told CNBC: 'As long as the Kremlin has no real intention of ending the war, peace is impossible.' She added that Ukraine has been resisting Russia for over a decade, indicating its unwillingness to accept illegal occupation.
Emily Ferris, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (RUSI), also believes: 'Russia still has (albeit slight) advances on the battlefield, so they are not in a hurry to negotiate. Unless there are concessions from the Ukrainian side, the Russian side has no motivation.'
Former British Ambassador to the US Kim Darroch stated at an investment summit in London: 'If Trump can't reach an agreement, he might say, 'This is a European problem,' leaving Europe responsible for military aid, which would be extremely detrimental to Ukraine.'
The Russia-Ukraine war is not only a geopolitical conflict but also has far-reaching impacts on global financial markets. After Russia's invasion in 2022, it triggered severe fluctuations in the energy market, causing European defense stocks to soar, as investors closely watch whether negotiations can bring market stability.
This article discusses whether the Ukraine war negotiations have entered the 'final 10 meters.' Russia's hardline stance may prolong the situation. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.