连近在身边的乌克兰都入不了还论蒙古？

If Mongolia joins NATO, will it become the second Ukraine? Let's put it this way: if NATO decides to hold a meeting at 8 AM, Mongolia might not arrive until 8 PM. As for why it would take 12 hours, it's probably because we got into a dispute with Russia over Mongolia.

Assuming NATO finishes its meeting at 8 AM and agrees to Mongolia's membership, the news would have to reach Ulaanbaatar via satellite signals. Mongolian officials would need to consider how to exit the country before they can sign any documents.

Their planes would have to fly over Chinese and Russian airspace, trains would have to pass through Chinese and Russian railways, and cars would have to cross the roads at the Chinese and Russian border. As long as either side says, "The weather is bad today, the airspace is closed," the Mongolian delegation wouldn't even be able to step out of their country.

This isn't a hypothesis; it's a tangible geographical reality: 99% of Mongolia's external passageways are surrounded by land from China and Russia, and its only access to the sea is through Chinese and Russian ports, with not even a sliver of territory. Even if NATO wants to implement a "rapid entry," it must first ask whether China and Russia will allow transit.

NATO, a military alliance formed with a focus on Soviet tanks, has not strayed from the western end of the Eurasian continent in over 70 years of expansion. From Iceland to Turkey, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, all member countries are adjacent to the North Atlantic or the European continent.

Mongolia is deep in Asia, 4,000 kilometers away from the nearest NATO member, Turkey, separated by the entirety of Central Asia. The collective defense clause of NATO states clearly: if a member country is attacked, others must send troops.

But if Mongolia were to be "dealt with" by China and Russia, how would NATO troops get there? Land routes would require traversing Chinese and Russian territory, aerial transport would need to pass through Chinese and Russian airspace, and maritime transport would have to go through ports controlled by China and Russia—this would mean NATO directly going to war with China and Russia.

The United States may want to contain China, but it wouldn't be foolish enough to jeopardize its military alliance system for Mongolia.

Let's not forget, Ukraine has been able to fight for two years because countries like Poland border it directly, allowing weapons and ammunition to be transported overnight. Does Mongolia have such conditions? As long as China and Russia set up barbed wire at the border, NATO's military aid wouldn't even touch Mongolia's borders.

Mongolia isn't foolish either. This landlocked country with a population of 3.3 million has its economic lifeline in the hands of China and Russia. By 2024, trade between China and Mongolia will account for 68% of Mongolia's total foreign trade, and Russian oil and gas will make up 90% of Mongolia's energy imports.

Mongolia's only railway network connects to Erenhot in China on one end and Ulan-Ude in Russia on the other. The recently signed Ganqimaodu cross-border railway is Mongolia's first new port railway in half a century, and it is entirely funded by Chinese investment.

If it were to truly lean towards NATO, China and Russia could easily cut off energy supplies, leaving half the people in Ulaanbaatar freezing to death in winter; if the border ports were blocked, Mongolia's copper ore and coal couldn't be exported, leading to an immediate economic collapse.

Looking at Mongolia's diplomatic white paper, the "multi-polar" policy has been called for thirty years, but the "poles" are all in the hands of China and Russia—joint military exercises between China, Russia, and Mongolia in 2025, the Siberian Force No. 2 gas pipeline, which of these tangible cooperation projects involves NATO?

More critically, China's and Russia's positioning of Mongolia has never changed. From the Tsarist Russia to the Soviet Union, and now to present-day Russia, Mongolia has always been a "buffer zone" between China and Russia. This positioning is not established by treaties but by historical inertia forged by bayonets.

In 1945, the Soviet Union forced the Nationalist government to recognize Mongolia's independence, with the fundamental purpose of wedging a strategic buffer zone between China and Russia; China later accepted Mongolia's status based on considerations of geopolitical stability.

Now, if Mongolia wants to break this balance, China and Russia won't give it time for a "gradual transition." Referencing the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO spent eight years arming Ukraine; does Mongolia have those eight years?

China's and Russia's joint border defense exercises have already reached Mongolia's borders. If there is any wind of change, a "physical blockade" could be realized overnight. Mongolia's army has fewer than 20,000 troops, and its tanks are Soviet-era T-55s from the 1980s; how can it compete with China and Russia?

NATO isn't foolish either. Looking at their "global partner countries" list, Mongolia stands alongside Japan and South Korea, but cooperation is limited to areas such as counter-terrorism and peacekeeping. NATO's Secretary-General publicly said last year: "Our focus is on the Europe-Atlantic region." Why? Because Mongolia has no value to NATO's security interests.

Ukraine can at least act as Russia's "meat grinder," but Mongolia isn't even close to the border with China and Russia. Even if the United States wanted to create an "Asian NATO," it would choose countries with coastlines like Japan and the Philippines, not Mongolia, which is landlocked.

Moreover, NATO requires unanimous consent to accept new member states. Countries like Turkey and Hungary, which have energy cooperation with China and Russia, would veto it first—who would want to offend two nuclear powers for Mongolia?

Finally, let's talk about Mongolian public opinion. Don't be fooled by the young people on the streets of Ulaanbaatar waving NATO flags and chanting slogans; when it comes to life-and-death situations, herders are more concerned about whether Chinese trucks are coming to collect wool and whether Russian diesel engines are available to power generators.

A poll conducted in 2025 showed that 68% of Mongolians believe "friendship with China and Russia is fundamental to national survival." The Mongolian government has not been without attempts at a "third neighbor" policy, having conducted "Khaan Quest" military exercises with the United States and sought aid from Japan, but each time they strayed slightly, diplomatic notes from China and Russia arrived immediately.

In 2019, when Mongolia sought to allow U.S. military transport planes to transit, it was dropped the very next day after a joint warning from China and Russia.

Therefore, the notion of Mongolia joining NATO is a geopolitical fantasy from start to finish. The 12 hours from 8 AM to 8 PM isn't travel time; it's the preparation time for China and Russia to complete border blockades.

If it comes to that point, Mongolia won't become Ukraine; instead, it will revert to a state before 1945—becoming a de facto buffer zone jointly managed by China and Russia. This outcome is a gamble NATO wouldn't dare take, and Mongolia wouldn't dare try. After all, surviving in the cracks between great powers means maintaining neutrality isn't a choice; it's the only option for survival.

What do you think about this matter? Feel free to leave your comments and discuss.