In-depth analysis
1. Technical rebound (mixed impact)
Overview: The RSI index of APT (14 days: 24.77) has reached the oversold zone, while a double bottom pattern has formed near the support at $1.842. Fibonacci levels indicate resistance at $1.87 (38.2% retracement).
Meaning: Traders often interpret an RSI in the oversold zone and the presence of a double bottom as contrarian buy signals. However, the 24-hour trading volume of APT represents only 10.8% of its 30-day average, indicating low conviction. The price remains below all major moving averages (7-day SMA: $1.94, 200-day EMA: $4.30).
To watch: A close above the resistance of $1.87 could target the 1.90-1.94 zone. A failure to maintain support at $1.72 risks a new test of the annual lows.
2. Expansion of the Aave ecosystem (Bullish catalyst)
Overview: Aave launched its first deployment outside of EVM on Aptos on November 12, 2025, with a liquidity incentive program managed by Metrom (Aptos). Over 75 million dollars in net deposits have been recorded.
Consequences: Although the adoption is still recent, this integration connects Aptos to the Aave ecosystem, whose TVL exceeds 70 billion dollars. The incentives could favor the use of APT in the short term for governance or collateral. However, APT's DeFi TVL remains significantly lower than that of its competitors like Solana and Ethereum's layer 2 infrastructures.
3. Macro-economic market headwinds (Bearish pressure)
Overview: The rise of APT over 24 hours occurred despite a 2.4% decrease in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, due to liquidations of 413 million dollars and very positive PCE inflation data (CoinMarketCap).
Conclusion: APT's resilience is relative; it fell by 11.8% on December 5 before rebounding, showing a performance below Bitcoin's dominance (+58.6%). The tokenomics remains a hindrance: the monthly unlocking of 11.3 million APT (more than 20 million dollars) exerts persistent selling pressure.
Conclusion
The slight rebound of APT reflects the ability of technical traders to profit from the oversold situation and the optimism surrounding Aave's expansion to Aptos. However, weak volumes, token unlocking, and a risk-averse crypto context limit the upside potential. Key point: Can APT hold above $1.72 if Bitcoin drops below $89,000? Watch the growth of deposits on Aave's Aptos platform and the Fed's decision on interest rates on December 7 for macroeconomic indicators.
