The big pancake market has clearly encountered resistance above 94,000, and has now fallen back to around 91,000, oscillating and testing the support below. However, the overall structure hasn't changed much; it remains the old routine of 'oscillation - washing - pulling up', but this method has been more intense than before recently.
In my personal judgment, the washing action below 90,000 has basically been completed in the short term, and the next main task is to have another wave of rebound, with the target range set at 97,000 - 100,000.
Of course, there are risks. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which has been basically confirmed for the 19th, could trigger a spiral decline in risk assets. On the other hand, various rumors from the Federal Reserve suggest that interest rate cuts are 'set in stone'. The key point is that: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut actions are communicated before Japan's interest rate hike, so at least until early December, there is no need to worry too much about the impact from Japan; the core focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Moreover, methods like those of Ethereum and Bitcoin, which involve rapid and violent washing out followed by a rebound, often signal that there will be a significant rebound later. We can wait and see.
Recently, many brothers have complained to me that the market reverses too quickly, and they couldn't get in before it went up; as a result, once they chased in, the market stagnated again, and they began to struggle with whether to cut losses.
Everyone take a look, isn't this the most typical cycle of 'retail investor thinking': afraid to enter when it drops, chasing high when it rises, and cutting losses when trapped. After a few cycles, the result is: when the market rises, your capital is gone.
The two toughest tests in life are simply: the patience to wait for opportunities and the courage to face all circumstances. Without patience, you cannot seize even the best market; without courage, the best opportunities have nothing to do with you.
Take another look at Ethereum. This rebound is also within the range of my previous predictions, basically around 3,200 is about right. Without any new significant positive news, the market is likely to test around 3,000 again to capture liquidity. However, the possibility of continuing to reach deeper lows is already quite low. Remember, the market often suddenly starts when the vast majority of people have not yet boarded.
Don’t fantasize about catching every rise, nor should you hope to avoid every pullback. Trading, after all, is a battle of money, but more so, it is a game of human nature. Sometimes, winning just one more battle determines the final outcome.
