As an old veteran who has been struggling in the cryptocurrency circle for many years, the recent policy storm has completely kept me awake at night—not because of liquidation, but because this regulatory earthquake's 'precise strikes' are simply like a financial spy thriller! Hong Kong and the mainland are acting simultaneously, one using a 'scalpel' to cut USDT, and the other using an 'iron fist' to ban stablecoins. The cryptocurrency ecosystem is undergoing a hard landing. Below are my personal interpretations and survival tips, a pure sharing of practical insights, and I welcome everyone to discuss together!

1. Mainland 'zero tolerance': The era of the 'criminalization' of stablecoins has arrived​

In November 2025, the central bank led 13 departments to define stablecoins as virtual currencies, directly categorizing them as illegal financial activities.

. What does this mean? In the past, privately exchanging USDT might have just been a violation; now it has directly escalated to a criminal case! Data shows that this year, the mainland has intercepted 12,000 suspicious transactions, with an amount involved reaching 4.6 billion yuan.

My observation:

  • The funding channels are fully tightened: banks and payment institutions have adopted a “zero tolerance” attitude towards virtual currency transactions, and the previously used channels such as OTC trading and P2P off-exchange trading have basically been blocked.

  • The digital renminbi is stepping in as a substitute: while regulators are blocking stablecoins, they are accelerating the promotion of digital renminbi for cross-border payments (with a scale exceeding 10 trillion yuan).

    , clearly aiming to guide liquidity into compliant channels.

Personal opinion: Mainland players should stop fantasizing about “low-key gold mining,” as only licensed institutions and compliant tools will survive in the future!

2. Hong Kong's “blood change” of USDT: high thresholds for a compliant ecosystem.

Hong Kong’s approach is more “advanced” — it’s not a one-size-fits-all; instead, it’s performing “surgery” on USDT with (stablecoin regulations):

  • Retail investors are banned, limited to professional investors: since the issuer of USDT, Tether, has not met licensing requirements, retail trading has been comprehensively restricted.

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  • The licensing threshold is extremely high: non-bank institutions need to have a paid-in capital of 25 million Hong Kong dollars, and reserve assets must be 100% highly liquid (such as cash and short-term government bonds).

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  • Shifting to real economy scenarios: for example, Caesar Travel uses stablecoins to achieve real-time conversion of foreign tourist spending into renminbi, improving settlement efficiency by 90%.

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My analysis:

Hong Kong appears to be open, but in reality, it uses “compliance shackles” to filter players. The stablecoins that can survive in the future must be transparent in reserves and serve the real economy as “top students.” Giants like USDT, which operate in a “black box,” will find their survival space in Hong Kong increasingly limited.

3. Market upheaval: funds are flowing towards digital renminbi and compliant offshore tools.

After this storm, the market landscape has been restructured:

  • Mainland funds are shifting to digital renminbi: the proportion of USDT off-exchange trading has plummeted from 90%, while digital renminbi is rapidly gaining popularity in cross-border trade and supply chain finance scenarios.

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  • Hong Kong has become a “testing ground”: the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin (such as Standard Chartered HKDG) is taking over from USDT, becoming a settlement tool for RWA (real-world asset) tokenization, attracting institutions like Sequoia Capital.

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My suggestion:

  • Short-term: Avoid trading domestic stablecoins, especially through off-exchange channels, as you may become a target for criminal prosecution.

  • Long-term: Pay attention to compliant stablecoins in Hong Kong and the RWA track, such as Hong Kong dollar stablecoins pegged to gold and government bonds, which may be the next hot trend.

In conclusion: Surviving is more important than making money!

The essence of this regulatory storm is that the state is competing for financial sovereignty and the dominance of capital flows. As retail investors, we must understand the red lines of policies and adapt to the trend of “compliance” — as I often say: “In the cryptocurrency world, longevity is the winner.”#USDT If you are confused about how to operate in the market and don’t know what to do, follow me, and I will help you avoid pitfalls with practical experience, securely protect your principal, and gradually earn profits!