I feel that this week's market is just pretending to be dead, superficially calm, but in reality, everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's "rate cut whistle." Don't talk about U.S. stocks or Bitcoin; the fluctuations these days are so small they seem like a bug, and the new data hasn't even made a splash. To put it bluntly, this week is just garbage time; the real action is next Monday and Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot + Powell's speech + a pile of economic data all coming together; that's when the truth will be revealed. Talking about a reversal now is purely nonsense; at most, it's a rebound uphill: this rebound from 126200 is larger than the previous one from 116400, but fundamentally there's no difference. I won't say much more; let me highlight the key points for everyone: BTC: 98000 is the line of life and death, with both psychological and technical resistance; if it can't hold, it's just a white increase. Only if it holds can we talk about a reversal. ETH: I've said before that its elasticity is stronger than BTC, and the next step is to see if it can bite through 3660.
By the way, it's already December, so don't forget the old rule; the "calamity" written clearly in the K-line around Christmas should not be ignored. Finally, to be honest, don't guess the script randomly: If Bitcoin can't hold 100,000, it's all risk; only if it holds can the crazy bull dare to raise its head. Be patient for next week; whether it's a dragon or a bug will be decided with one hammer.
