Brothers, I am Mig.
In the afternoon, while watching the market, this ETH four-hour chart looks increasingly off, I need to quickly chat with you guys.
I know many people are feeling anxious right now: the decline has happened, but will it continue to 'needle down' or suddenly 'flag up'?
Without further ado, let's get straight to the news, and it’s not trivial; it’s a nuclear bomb!
Today at noon, the Bank of Japan hinted at interest rate hikes. This is not a small matter! The yen fluctuates, and the dollar is effectively pushed higher.
With a strong dollar, the 'suction pipe' for global risk assets is opened. It has directly equipped ETH's current downward trend with an 'accelerator'. This is not fundamental analysis; this is bloody capital flow logic.
Next, let's look at the signals given to us by the technicals!
Currently, this trend clearly shows that bears are dominant, and the trend is downward. The most critical signal is the MACD white and yellow lines on the four-hour chart; although they are still above the zero axis, they have already 'broken up,' forming a death cross!
So the question arises: where to escape? Or can we still push it up?
Mig's view is clear: Don't rush to call the bottom; the key is to watch a line of defense and a switch.
The first line of defense: The area around 3065 - 2970 at the daily level is a place that the main force must defend. If it drops here, especially with a quick 'spike,' you can try a small position for a rebound—quick in and out to make some pocket money. But if it breaks through like paper, the next stop might be the 'bottom support' around 2760, so be very cautious.
That key switch: at 3230! Remember this number. As long as the price can return and stabilize above it, the warning for a decline will be temporarily lifted, and the market may challenge the upper 3460, even the high-pressure zone of 3550-3650. However, even if it rushes to that high-pressure zone, for us, it is not a signal to chase the rise, but rather an opportunity to consider incrementally placing short orders.
Considering the news: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, causing fluctuations in the USD/JPY; a strong USD is usually not good for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This adds an external environment 'assistance' to the current downtrend.
What should retail investors do now?
For brothers with heavy positions: If the rebound can't even break 3230, consider reducing your position to lower costs; sleeping soundly is better than anything.
For brothers looking to buy the dip: Don't rush! Wait for it to reach around 3065-2970, and look for signs of a quick rebound ('spike'), then try with a small amount and set a stop loss. Don't go all in thinking you're buying the bottom; you might just be catching half a mountain.
For brothers watching from the sidelines: You are the smartest. The best action now might be to do nothing. Either wait for it to effectively break key support to confirm the downtrend or wait for it to strongly break 3230 to turn the situation around, then we can follow the trend.
Mig's personal view: The market is generally bearish now; you can take short-term rebounds between 3060-2970. The current price level is not recommended for entry. If it can't break 3230, you can also take short-term pullbacks. For medium to long positions, you can consider going short in the range of 3460-3550 after breaking 3230.
The market changes every day, but the mindset and discipline are eternal. Mig will find these key 'switches' and 'defenses' for everyone every day. Today it dares to cross the death cross, tomorrow it dares to cross the golden cross; there are always opportunities in the market, but they are only for those who are prepared and have a strategy.
Follow Mig, it's not just about looking at an analysis, but learning a set of 'survival rules' to respond to fluctuations. If you don't know the specific entry and exit points, fans holding positions can follow Mig, who will announce daily currencies, entry points, and exit timings in the chat room!!
