#BTCVSGOLD Metric Bitcoin (BTC) Gold (XAU)
2025 YTD return -1.2 % +55.2 %
Last traded price ≈ 93 k ≈ 3 965 / oz
Market cap ≈ 1.8 T ≈ 24 T
30-day vol 30-day vol ≈ 70 % 30-day vol ≈ 15 %
2025 narrative First time ever “worst-performing major asset” Best-performing major asset, “super-star” status
📊 BTC vs GOLD – 2025 SCOREBOARD
(as of 4 Dec 2025)
Metric Bitcoin (BTC) Gold (XAU)
2025 YTD return -1.2 % +55.2 %
Last traded price ≈ 93 k ≈ 3 965 / oz
Market cap ≈ 1.8 T ≈ 24 T
30-day vol 30-day vol ≈ 70 % 30-day vol ≈ 15 %
2025 narrative First time ever “worst-performing major asset” Best-performing major asset, “super-star” status
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🔍 Key Take-aways
1. Role-reversal year
Gold is 2025’s safety crown: macro uncertainty, central-bank buying and USD jitters pushed the metal to record highs near 4 k.
Bitcoin, after kissing 126 k in Oct, has shed >25 % and is negative YTD for the first time since data began in 2011 .
2. Liquidity & depth
Gold’s daily turnover dwarfs BTC; a 12 bn gold sale moves the price 2 %, the same notional in BTC could tank it 25 % .
3. Long-term score
Still no contest on cumulative gains: BTC +315 101 % since 2011 vs gold +171 %, but the ride is white-knuckle .
4. What’s next?
JPMorgan models BTC fair-value at 165 k on a volatility-adjusted basis, implying it is “cheap” vs gold if you can stomach 4× the swing factor .
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🏁 Bottom line
2025 flips the script: gold is the tranquil hero, BTC the volatile under-performer.
Traders are rotating, not abandoning—BTC’s scarcity story and ETF pipeline remain intact, but for now “old money” wins the round.
