Community response: 1 USDT off-exchange is only worth 6.97 RMB, while the dollar spot rate is 7.0649 RMB.
Negative premium of 0.17%, which seems like a small number, is actually a heavy blow - waking up all those who still fantasize that 'stablecoins = safe haven'.
A few days ago, the central bank led a meeting with 13 departments, targeting stablecoins and online speculation, with a tone as harsh as the 2022 519 replay:
"Virtual currency illegal financial activities, stablecoins? It's just a wolf in sheep's clothing, KYC/AML is a mess, money laundering/cross-border arbitrage/fraud all rely on it."
It's not a new policy; it's an upgrade of old bans: from 'banning transactions' to 'banning stabilizers', this aims to completely cut off the 'oxygen supply' for crypto.
But what I see is different:
This is not a panic signal; it is rational dimension reduction.
Negative premium does not mean USDT has collapsed, but rather RMB is saying 'I don't care about your dollar shadow.'
Think about it:
• The global market cap of USDT is 1.3 trillion dollars, with Chinese users accounting for at least 20% (based on on-chain data), but the off-market premium has dropped from +5% during the bull market to negative, indicating that funds are not fleeing but 'localizing'.
• The central bank has pushed e-CNY (digital yuan) to over 300 million users, the 'anchoring game' of stablecoins has failed in China—who wants to be pegged to the dollar when e-CNY's transaction volume exceeds 1 trillion dollars in Q4?
• Unique viewpoint: This wave of 'negative premium' is actually a 'silent liquidation'. Retail investors selling USDT are not losing money; they are being forced to choose sides: either switch to the stablecoin sandbox in Hong Kong (Ant Group/JD has just applied for a license), or directly enter the compliance pool of e-CNY. Regulation is not about killing the chicken to warn the monkey; it is about building a 'firewall + reservoir': the firewall blocks foreign wolves, and the reservoir stores local water.
Wake up, old hands: After 519, BTC halved, and you all in at the bottom; this time with negative premium on USDT, do you still dare to gamble?
Newbies remember: stablecoins are never stable; they stabilize your illusion.
In the winter of 2025, RMB is not anxious, e-CNY is not untrue, cryptocurrency? It's chilly, but opportunities lie outside the wall.
Negative premium = alarm bell,
What has awakened is not the market,
It's your position.
