Short Selling High Valuation New Projects Strategy Reference
Recommendation 1: MON (Monad)
Project Overview:
Positioning: VC-backed Layer 1 blockchain (supported by top institutions like Paradigm)
Launch Date: November 24, 2024 (Bitget/Bybit)
Current Price: $0.02899 (as of December 3, 2025 UTC)
Short Selling Logic:
1. Valuation Bubble:
Total Financing $431.5M, estimated launch FDV $1B+ has dropped 70% from peak $0.10 to $0.029, but still far higher than actual value
2. Extremely Concentrated Chips and Ongoing Distribution:
24-hour trading volume plummeted -13.22%, indicating that large holders are accelerating their exit
Funding Rate 0.005-0.01 (longs pay shorts), excessive leverage on longs vulnerable to liquidation
3. Fundamental Collapse:
Community Backlash: Only 3% airdropped to the community vs 25% to the team, labeled "scam testnet users"
User Exodus: 70% of airdrop recipients immediately sell off and turn to other projects
Product Gaps: No substantial applications on the mainnet, KOLs criticize "engagement without returns"
4. Technical Bear Market Confirmation:
1-day Line: ADX 52.3 strong downtrend, price below BB midline $0.0264
MACD: histogram -0.00020 (4-hour bear divergence)
Support Level: Has broken below critical level $0.030, next target $0.025
Contract Availability: Bitget, Bybit perpetual contracts are open
Recommended Strategy:
Entry: $0.029-0.032 range for phased shorting
Stop Loss: $0.036 (+24%)
Target: $0.020 (-31%), aggressive view $0.015 (-48%)
Win Rate Assessment: 70%$MON #加密市场观察
