Family, recently the ETH market has been very lively, with a surge of over 8% in 24 hours, directly jumping from 2780 to above 3040, which has excited many retail investors, with screens filled with shouts of 'Charge to 3200' and 'Crying from missing out'. But we must not let this excitement cloud our judgment; we need to analyze calmly.
Let's talk about the relationship between volume and price. Normally, when prices rise strongly, trading volume should increase accordingly, just like a car needs more power to accelerate. However, this time when ETH's price surged towards 3120, the 15-minute trading volume shrank by 10% - 18%; when breaking through the 3040 K-line, the hourly trading volume was directly cut in half compared to the previous high. This is clearly unusual, indicating insufficient upward momentum, and it is likely a 'false rise'.
Take another look at the key price levels. 3120 at this position is likely a 'trap for retail investors' set by the main forces. It looks like it's about to break through, attracting retail investors to chase in, but if it can't hold, the upward movement is just 'for show', and the main forces want retail investors to hold the position. Also, at 3170, many people were trapped last year in the 3170 - 3200 range, and now that the price is rising, there will definitely be heavy selling pressure here. If the main forces really wanted to push it up, they would have done so with volume earlier, and wouldn't be stalling here, so this is likely a 'counter-kill point' chosen by the main forces.
In addition, the whale's cost zone is between 3050 - 3100, where they swept up 1.6 million chips, establishing a strong bottom position. They definitely don't want retail investors to make money above their cost price, and are likely to push the price to a level where retail investors think it will break through, tricking them into getting in, and then secretly unloading their stocks, waiting for the price to drop back to the cost zone to buy back chips at a lower price, and then truly pushing it up after retail investors cut their losses.
Now the whole network is shouting 'ETH to 3200', retail investor sentiment is high, which is actually very dangerous. The more excited retail investors are, the calmer the main forces become, and they are likely waiting for retail investors to chase the price up before turning around and dumping.
In the next 48 hours, there are three possible scenarios for ETH's movement. The first is a volume breakout at 3170, which would be a true breakout, with a chance to hit 3200 +, but it must be a substantial volume; a breakout on low volume is just playing tricks. The second scenario is a high followed by a counter-kill, first tricking retail investors into chasing the price up, then dropping it back to 3080, and testing the 3050 support line. This has a probability of over 70%, which is a common tactic used by the main forces. The third possibility is a direct crash to 2900, but this has only a 20% chance, as institutional costs are above 2900, and they are more afraid of a drop than retail investors.
For the upcoming layout direction, I will lead everyone to aim for the lucrative opportunities in altcoins. Want to flip your position? Want to recover losses? Join the chat room to get firsthand information and in-depth analysis #币安区块链周 #ETH .
