According to Cointelegraph, more and more analysts in the market are beginning to reassess the possibility of a deep drop in BTC. Analyst Sykodelic presents a viewpoint that is completely opposite to the pessimists:


In this cycle, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin is merely dropping to $55,000.



He believes that:




  • For BTC to experience a similar 75% major correction as in the past, it must first undergo a "complete expansion;"


  • and this cycle has not reached that extreme euphoric stage, thus "there is no logic in crashing to $35,000."




Currently, Bitcoin has retraced about 31% from its high of $126,000 in early October, but in his view, this is far from an "overly drastic decline."



In addition, he pointed out that BTC has never fallen below the lower Bollinger Band on a monthly basis. Historical data shows that even in weak expansion phases, the most extreme pullbacks do not occur. He compares this cycle to 2017 and believes the structure has not undergone 'catastrophic deterioration.'



Another analyst, Jeff Ko, expressed more directly:


55,000 USD is unlikely to be reached; BTC is more likely to return to the 65,000–68,000 range.



However, not everyone is so optimistic.


SignalPlus's Augustine Fan warns:


If the 72,000–75,000 USD support area is breached, it will trigger a 'catastrophic drop' that could reshape the entire cycle structure.



Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating slightly upward around $87,000, and the market is in a phase of uncertainty.



In summary:




  • Most analysts believe the downside is limited;


  • The pessimists are starting to lose their voice;


  • The key market support remains in the 72k–75k range; only if it is lost will there be a real 'high-energy warning'.




Summary in one sentence:


For BTC now, the risk is not about dropping to 35,000, but rather that during the time you wait for 35,000, it may have already rebounded.