【$ETH : Breakout or Bull Trap? Why 3050 Is a Risky Long Entry】
ETH's strong breakout above 3000 seems to re-enter a bullish pattern, but from the perspective of capital and technical analysis, short-term caution is still needed for the typical structure of 'whale pushing prices up → retail chasing prices → high position washout.'
ETH’s breakout above 3000 looks bullish, but both technical and liquidity signals suggest a potential short-term bull trap driven by whale distribution and retail FOMO.
📊 Two Major Warning Signs：
1. Profit-taking pressure
From 2600 to 3050, an increase of over 17%, short-term selling pressure naturally increases. Chasing here poses greater risks than rewards.
Price surged from 2600 to 3050 (+17%). Short-term sellers are naturally increasing — chasing here is high risk.
2. Overheated sentiment, FOMO intensifying Retail FOMO at extremes
Retail sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, historically often accompanied by short-term corrections. When sentiment becomes one-sidedly bullish, markets tend to correct.
📈 Yesterday’s Play Recap
My brother pointed out that the range of 2880–2900 is a low entry point.
Only SwingBro identified 2880–2900 as the high-probability long zone.
The lowest retracement to 2887 quickly rebounded to 3057, with a single long position profit reaching 150 points.
ETH bottomed at 2887 and rallied sharply to 3057 (+150 pts).
Night session capital movements + institutional accumulation signals are the main reasons for the rebound.
Night-session inflows + institutional accumulation triggered the move.
⚔️ Current market: Bull and bear risks coexist Market Outlook: Bull–Bear Clash Incoming
Technical signals:
Although the daily EMA shows a golden cross, the volume is shrinking → may indicate a false breakout
EMA bullish crossover but weak volume → possible fake breakout
Stuck zone: 3080–3130 needs to be digested
Heavy resistance at 3080–3130 (previous supply zone)
Support: 2950 → 2880 Support: 2950 → 2880
Resistance: 3130 → 3250 Resistance: 3130 → 3250
Liquidity clues:
ETH ETF inflow of $96.57 million
ETH ETF saw +$96.5M inflows
However, exchanges increased by 120K ETH → institutions are making adjustments
But exchange reserves increased by 120K ETH → potential distribution
Whale cost basis: 2900–2950; a breakdown may trigger panic selling
Whale cost basis at 2900–2950; breakdown may trigger panic selling
🎯 Operational Strategy
Long Setup:
2950–2980 Layout Entry: 2950–2980
Stop loss: 2870 SL: 2870
Take profit: 3080 / 3130 TP: 3080 / 3130
Short Setup:
3150–3180 (positioning when upward momentum weakens) Entry: 3150–3180 (rejection/sideways = signal)
Stop loss: 3150 SL: 3150
Take profit: 3000 TP: 3000
🔍 Conclusion
ETH is likely forming a 2900–3130 range.
There is still a chance to initiate the next wave of attacks after the washout.
A classic washout zone before the next expansion move.
Avoid chasing during fluctuations; focus on strategic positioning.
Avoid chasing; position smartly.
🔥 Follow the swing brother 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗕𝗿𝗼_𝟬𝘅 to catch the golden moment before the bull market starts!
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