Bitcoin is set to break its typical seasonal strength as November appears likely to end in the red, despite historically being its best-performing month. Bitfinex analysts attribute the decline to heavy buying at the $106,000–$118,000 levels earlier in the cycle, which has now turned into capitulation as many traders sell at a loss. Still, whale activity is slowly recovering, with wallets holding at least 100 BTC increasing since mid-November — a sign that demand may be stabilizing.

In the options market, large notional long call condor block trades indicate that professional traders expect Bitcoin to rise but remain capped within the $100,000–$118,000 range through the end of 2025. The previously expected “Santa rally” has been priced out as short-term implied volatility stays elevated, the volatility curve remains in backwardation, and skew continues to lean bearish — reflecting a stressed market and lack of conviction in a sharp rebound.

Analysts emphasize that bottoming conditions haven't been met: implied volatility is still rising, contango has not returned, and skew has yet to normalize. Despite minor positive signals, the market is expected to remain volatile, with Bitcoin likely trading sideways or in an extended accumulation phase. Bitcoin currently trades near $87,400. $BTC