My phone was vibrating so hard it was getting hot at 3 a.m. I opened it and saw a message from Xiao Li: "Bro! My short position of 1 ETH went through! I just received the iPhone 16 package, my hands were shaking while holding the box. This money is like a windfall, I have a feeling something bad is going to happen?"
I laughed so hard my face creased up looking at the screen, and replied, "Don't rush to put on a tempered glass screen protector. This place, 2900, isn't a pie stall, it's a wolf's den mixed with a gold mine. It's up to you whether you're lying in wait to hunt or standing there as a target."
These past few days, everyone in the industry has been talking about ETH at 2900. Some are shouting, "If it breaks through, it's the start of a bull market," while others are stuck at 2950 and cursing. But in my eyes, this "ghost wall" across the candlestick chart has already written the secret to making money on it.
1. 2900 points: Four attempts to break through all failed. What is the origin of this wall?
Over the past 30 days, ETH has launched four attacks on the 2900-point level, all of which resulted in a "rise and fall," forming four standard "M-shaped" patterns on the candlestick chart, resembling warning signs for greedy investors. There's a reason this wall has held so firmly:
The trapped investors are thicker than a city wall: the retail investors who were stuck at 3000 points in the last bull market could line up from the entrance of the exchange to the subway station. As soon as ETH touched 2900, these people were in a hurry to "get out of their trap and run away", and the selling pressure was higher than a mountain.
The institutions had already set up "roadblocks": on major trading platforms, sell orders for 80,000 ETH were neatly arranged, which was equivalent to welding an iron gate to the price.
Hot money is "fishing": Before the US CPI data for June is released, large funds are all hiding in the corner and watching, and no one dares to use real money to push up the market - no one wants to be the "bagholder".
To put it bluntly, 2900 is the current "emotional ceiling": if it can't be broken, this is just a playground for short sellers; if it is broken, that's a different story. But before it's broken, anyone who tries to force their way through is just throwing their lives away.
II. Making Money by Following the "Wall": Details of My "Borrowing a Knife to Kill" Strategy with My Followers
On Tuesday at noon, I highlighted the message in the fan group: "Place short orders in the 2900 to 2920 range, with a stop loss at 2990—this is to give the market some leeway, not our bottom line; the target is first 2750, then 2650. The profit-loss ratio is 1:3, a sure-fire way to make money."
Why are we so confident in making this claim? There are three key reasons: First, shorting near the ceiling has a 3 times higher success rate than blindly buying long; second, institutional hedging and algorithmic trading are providing support, so there will be "help" if the price falls; and third, funds are hesitant to act before macroeconomic data releases, so prices are likely to remain flat or move downwards.
Sure enough, that night ETH surged to 2918 like it was on steroids, and the group chat exploded instantly—messages like "It's filled!" and "My short order is also placed!" flooded dozens of screens. Xiao Li later told me that his hands were sweating as he stared at the charts, afraid the price would rise even a little more, but as soon as he placed the order, it started to fall, more accurate than an alarm clock.
III. The Art of Taking Profits: Don't Let "The Meat That's in Your Mouth" Fly Away
The following morning, as soon as US stocks opened lower, ETH immediately fell below 2800, and the group immediately initiated a phased profit-taking plan:
50% of the position was closed at 2750, this part was the "guaranteed return", which resulted in a profit of 1.8%;
If you sell at 25% for 2700, the profit will surge to 2.9%, enough for Xiao Li to buy his girlfriend a lipstick;
The remaining 25% followed the trend and was chased all the way to 2640 before taking profit. This part alone earned 3.7%.
The average return is 2.5%, which doesn't seem like much, right? But with 10x leverage, it becomes a 25% return. Xiao Li's 1 ETH earned him 0.25 ETH, which is equivalent to more than 400 USDT, just enough for him to buy a phone and have some pocket money left over.
Here's a word of caution: Don't be greedy and try to "sell at the lowest point." Taking profits in batches is like eating hot pot; you cook one batch at a time and eat it, which is better than waiting for the pot to boil dry.
IV. The "Navigation System" Hidden in BTC: ETH Never Wanders Alone in the Dark
Experienced ETH traders know that ETH is essentially BTC's "shadow," following BTC wherever it goes. Recently, BTC has been stuck between 63,500 and 64,500, creating a "double whammy" with ETH at 2,900. The signal couldn't be clearer—a major market move hasn't happened yet, so don't mess around.
I specifically checked the data: miners saw a net outflow of 12,000 BTC over 7 days, and related US funds experienced net outflows for 3 consecutive days, indicating that large funds are withdrawing their investments. Therefore, I added an "insurance" layer to my followers' strategy: place a short order for BTC at 63,500, with a stop-loss at 64,500 and a target of 61,000; simultaneously, place multiple long orders at 61,500, with a stop-loss at 60,500 and a target of 64,000. This way, regardless of whether the price goes up or down, we have a way out.
Four stark truths for "all-in poker freaks"—understanding them can save you from losing half your money.
Every day, newbies message me asking "Can I go all in on ETH?" Every time, I get so angry I want to smash my phone. So today, I'm going to lay it all out upfront:
Don't chase too much near the ceiling, it's like not dancing on the edge of a cliff, you'll fall and be nothing but ashes.
Do not exceed 20% of your capital in high-leverage positions. Keep 80% of your principal so you can confidently add to your position when the market reverses.
Always keep an eye on BTC; it's like a "weather forecast" for ETH. If BTC drops, ETH is likely to fare badly as well.
Take 30% of your profits first. Whether it's buying a phone or eating hot pot, what's in your pocket is what's truly yours.
