🔥 HAS BITCOIN FOUND ITS BOTTOM? ON-CHAIN COHORTS TELL THE REAL STORY
The recent BTC dump sparked endless narratives — but on-chain data gives us the actual picture: redistribution, structural weakness, and a rebound that might mark a local bottom.
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1. Large Whales Are Still Distributing
Cohorts holding >10k BTC and 1k–10k BTC remain deeply negative.
Institutions continue taking profit and reducing risk.
➡️ Major players are still offloading supply.
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2. Retail Isn’t Accumulating — They’re Selling Too
0–1 BTC and 1–10 BTC wallets have been net sellers for 60 days straight.
➡️ Retail is not supporting the market. They’re adding to the sell pressure.
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3. Mid-Sized Players Are the Only Real Support
• 100–1k BTC: steady accumulation
• 10–100 BTC: consistent buying
These cohorts are helping — but not enough to counter heavy whale distribution.
➡️ Support exists, but it’s limited.
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4. Futures Turned a Correction Into a Crash
The 13-day fall from 106k → 79k was driven by:
💥 Long liquidations
📉 Futures-driven sell pressure
🔻 Margin calls and cascading liquidations
➡️ Leverage amplified the drop into a violent flush.
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5. Is the Downtrend Over?
After the 11-day collapse, BTC bounced from 79.5k → 88k within 48 hours.
A strong reaction — but not a confirmed reversal.
➡️ Momentum looks constructive, but confirmation requires whale accumulation.
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🏁 FINAL CONCLUSION
Bitcoin may have formed a local bottom, supported by accumulation from:
✔️ 100–1k BTC holders
✔️ >10k BTC whales
But the crucial 1k–10k BTC cohort is still selling, blocking full trend reversal confirmation.
📌 The rebound is promising — but the bearish phase truly ends only when key whales flip back to accumulation.
