The retail data for September in the United States has come out, and the market immediately sensed a different vibe.

Ordinary families are really feeling the strain now—rent is rising, oil prices are high, and jobs are hard to find; they are saving wherever they can. Non-essential consumption is shrinking, and the consumer confidence index has plummeted to its lowest point in three years. These signals combined have heated up one expectation: the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates in December. The probability of betting on an interest rate cut has already surged above 70%.

This is mixed news for the crypto market.

Let's start with the positive side. The expectation of an interest rate cut means liquidity is on the way. Recently, the market's rebound has mainly relied on this expectation—Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% from a six-month low of $80500, and Ethereum has stabilized around $2600. Institutional funds are seizing the opportunity to buy at low points, betting that once money loosens, valuations will naturally recover.

But we cannot ignore the other side of the coin. The problem exposed by weak consumption is that the economy itself is sluggish. If the expectation of an interest rate cut falls through, or if the signals of an economic recession become stronger, how will funds respond? Will they rush to buy government bonds, hoard gold, or continue to stay in volatile crypto assets? The answer is clear. Once risk-averse sentiment kicks in, the market may experience even more violent fluctuations.

Currently, the volatility in the crypto market has soared to 300%, and the root cause is not that the fundamentals have improved, but that it is betting on the Federal Reserve's next move. The Federal Reserve is also in a dilemma now—should it prioritize job preservation or continue to control inflation? How the interest rate decision in December will unfold is uncertain.

This uncertainty creates a contradiction for everyone. On one hand, there is fear that the old routine of "buying expectations, selling realities" will happen again, while on the other hand, no one wants to miss out on the opportunity window brought by liquidity easing.

The economic weakness depicted by the retail data has pushed the crypto market to a critical juncture. The rise and fall of major cryptocurrencies will increasingly closely follow the actual implementation rhythm of the interest rate cut policy. Investors need to find a balance between liquidity expectations and recession risks to seize real opportunities.