Bitcoin ($BTC) Technical Analysis;
Bitcoin is in a clear corrective phase after failing to hold above the psychological $100K zone and crashing to ~$80,600 last Friday (21 Nov). The sharp two-day 18%+ drop liquidated over $1.8B in longs and flipped former 2024 bull-market uptrend line (now resistance) near $94–96K.
Key Levels & Current Structure
Major horizontal support cluster: $80,000–81,800 (78.6% retracement of the Jul–Nov rally + previous ATH zone)
- Broken 50-day EMA (~$89,500) and 200-day EMA (~$78,200) now act as dynamic resistance on any bounce
- RSI (daily) oversold at 28 and showing first signs of bullish divergence
- Volume profile shows highest traded volume of 2024 around $76–78K (potential vacuum if broken)
Most Probable Scenarios & High R:R Setups
1. Bullish Relief Rally (60–65% probability short-term)
Setup: Oversold bounce toward former support-turned-resistance
Entry zone: $81,500–82,800 (current accumulation)
Targets: $88,000 → $92,000 → $96,000 (supply zone + broken trendline)
Invalidation: New low below $79,800
Risk-Reward: 1:3.8 at final target
Confluence: CME gap at ~$89,200, 0.618 Fib, 50-day EMA rejection expected to cap
2. Bearish Continuation (if $80K cracks)
Setup: Breakdown & retest short
Trigger: Daily close < $79,800
Entry on retest of underside $80–81K
Targets: $76,000 (2024 VPOC) → $71–73K (1.618 extension + 2023 highs)
Risk-Reward: 1:5+
On-Chain Context
Exchange inflows spiked to 18-month highs during the crash, but long-term holders (coins dormant >1y) have barely sold. This suggests the drop was primarily leveraged long liquidation rather than fundamental distribution.
Verdict
Current price action is textbook post-parabola correction. Favor long-biased scalps and swings while price remains above $80K, but keep stops tight. A weekly close above $96K is required to invalidate the bearish structure. Until then, treat rallies as “sell-the-rip” opportunities into December.
Trade the range, respect the levels, manage risk.
