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Trade Nuclear Bomb Detonation: The Undercurrents and Suspense Under the US-EU 'Ceasefire Agreement'
At the moment when Trump shook hands with von der Leyen, a seemingly 'ceasefire' trade agreement, in fact, dropped a deep-water bomb on the transatlantic economic order. According to the agreement, the United States will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, while the EU promises to eliminate all tariffs on American industrial products and initiate a total of $750 billion in US energy procurement, $600 billion in investments in American industries, and $40 billion in AI chip procurement. On the surface, it appears to be 'mutually beneficial', but Bernd Lange, the chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, pointedly noted: 'The imbalance favoring the United States is becoming increasingly apparent.'
‼️1 The power games behind the numbers
• The underlying message of the '15% tariff': Compared to the 30% initially threatened by Trump, this tax rate is referred to by the European Commission as 'loss control', but it actually builds a long-term trade barrier. EU steel and aluminum products still face a 50% punitive tariff, while key industries such as wine and spirits are excluded from the exemption list, forcing French cognac and champagne to swallow the bitter pill.
• The siphon effect of exorbitant procurement: $750 billion in energy procurement is equivalent to tripling the EU's energy imports from the US, while a $40 billion AI chip order could squeeze the global supply chain, raising procurement costs for non-US clients. EU companies are forced to 'exchange real money for stability', which actually deepens their dependence on the US.
‼️2 Europe's division and silent resistance
• France and Germany slam the table, Eastern Europe sighs: French Prime Minister Borne calls it a 'dark day', German Chancellor Merz bluntly states that the agreement will 'severely impact Germany's export economy', while Hungarian Prime Minister Orban criticizes it as 'not an agreement at all'.
• Von der Leyen's 'helpless defense': The European Commission emphasizes that the agreement provides 'predictability', but ING expert Brzeski bluntly states that this is merely the EU's 'loss control document', rather than a mutually beneficial agreement. Ironically, the agreement lacks legal binding force, and the US Supreme Court could overturn the tariff provisions, rendering the EU's concessions meaningless.
3🔥 Suspense: Who is taking on the challenge in the dark?
Behind the agreement, a larger game is brewing.
• Opportunities and crises of 'Morpho': Under the restructuring of trade patterns, the pressure to reconstruct supply chains is intensifying, and the cracks in the old alliance may give rise to a new ecology. If the new cooperation model represented by 'Morpho' can penetrate key areas such as energy, chips, or military industries, it could become a game changer in chaotic times.
• Trump's 'backhand': Even if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, Trump can still unilaterally impose taxes using tools like Section 232. Former EU Trade Commissioner Malmström warns: 'It's too early to celebrate; he always has new leverage.'
🚨Conclusion: Fragile stability and lingering smoke
This agreement is not the end, but the prologue to a new round of games. As Europe is forced to 'exchange concessions for stability', the global trade chessboard has quietly tilted. The next step is to see how 'Morpho' seizes the opportunity to break the deadlock, and to observe whether Trump's 'trade nuclear bomb' will ignite deeper fissures. 🔥🔥🔥
