đ Exactly One Year Ago Pure Green⊠and Now Pure Red â Reason?, and Why $TRUMP Was Neutral in Both â hope this helps
Exactly one year ago the whole market was green. Traders were confident, institutions were relaxed, and whales, theyâre always happy. Today everything is red, and even tradersâ hopes look red. But once you look at the data, the picture becomes extremely clear.
Late 2024 and late 2025 share almost the same structure. BTC liquidity in late 2024 was around $14â20M; today itâs back near $14M. Spot demand was weak then and weak now. Stablecoin sidelining was heavy then and heavy now. Nothing about the core structure in 2024 was strong â and nothing is strong today either.
The only thing that changed is how greedy the market became. Leverage exploded from Q4 2024âs ~$37B to ~$31B in Q3 2025, now pushing toward an estimated ~$80B (est.) this quarter. More OI, more hope, more overâextension â and sharper pain when liquidity stays thin.
So why was November 2024 pure green while November 2025 is pure red?
Because in 2024, ETF inflows took over. H2 2024 pulled almost $10â12B of inflow, with December alone near $4.5B. Flows always chase strength â green brings more green.
This year the opposite is happening. ETF outflow is dominating, and in a thinâliquidity market, outflow turns into direct pressure on the downside.
So Late 2024 wasnât strong, it was rescued. The structure was already fragile, but two major shocks landed together: Trump won the presidency, and the Fed delivered a rate cut. Powellâs tone was neutral, not dovish, but the combo was enough to push price through a weak order book.
And now? The same neutral market is bleeding, and this time he start the bleeding. Not bullish, not bearish, just the spark hitting a fragile setup.
Difference? 2024 had a bullish spark.2025 got a bearish one (only need one bullish spark). Everything else â liquidity, spot weakness, leverage, Fed tone â stayed the same.
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