We were told to be worried at the bottom and now they're | Bluechip on Binance Square

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We were told to be worried at the bottom and now they're telling us not to be worried at all...
Should we be worried? 

Bluechip

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SHIIIIT!

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THE CHIP WAR JUST PIVOTED AND NOBODY NOTICED Tesla killed Dojo in August. Not because it failed. Because they realized something Wall Street still does not understand: training is a commodity market Nvidia already won. The only war that matters is inference at scale. Here is what actually happened. Tesla secured $16.5 billion in Samsung Texas fab capacity through 2033. Dual-sourced TSMC Arizona as backup. Designed AI5 as a half-reticle chip on 2nm process to double yields per wafer. Target output: millions of units annually. Not for sale. For captive deployment in every Tesla vehicle and Optimus robot. Do the math. Each AI5 chip costs roughly $500 to produce at scale. Nvidia equivalent inference performance costs $5,000. That is 10x cost efficiency on the only compute that matters: real-time decision making in the physical world. Autonomy. Robotics. Embodiment. When Tesla hits 20 million vehicles plus 10 million robots by 2030, that is 30 million chips they never bought from Nvidia. At $5,000 per equivalent unit, that is $150 billion in inference spending that vanishes from the merchant silicon market. Nvidia does not lose a data center customer. They lose an entire category before it scales. Every Chinese automaker is watching. NIO, XPeng, BYD are already designing their own chips to escape Nvidia’s 70% margins. The de-Nvidification wave is not coming. It already started. But here is the part that breaks everything: 100 million robots running 300 watts each is 30 gigawatts of distributed load. That is more than Portugal’s entire electrical grid. We are building an AI civilization on infrastructure designed for the 20th century. Tesla did not just vertically integrate. They created a sovereign compute stack that bypasses the entire semiconductor supply chain the moment those fabs turn on. This is not disruption. This is secession. The inference wars just went kinetic and the battlefield is every parking lot and factory floor on Earth. $BTC

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THE TWELVE BILLION DOLLAR TRAP

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$BTC Buyers outweighing sellers on this slow grind upwards. OI relatively flat, with the move being a short covering rally rather than genuine underlying demand. Typical weekend PA . Staircase up...

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BITCOIN’S CAPITULATION TRANSFER: THE CHART NO ONE IS WATCHING This is not a breakdown. This is a balance sheet reset. STH MVRV just printed 0.85. That means every Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is underwater by 15%. Not “slightly red.” Structurally capitulating We have seen this exact configuration twice before: November 2022 after FTX collapsed: MVRV hit 0.80, STH supply in loss reached 2.8M BTC, price $16K. What followed was a 300% rally over 12 months April 2025 local reset: MVRV bottomed at similar levels, launched the move from $60K to $126K all-time high by October Now look at the supply side mechanics: Exchange reserves: 2.39M BTC, down 8% year-over-year. Coins are leaving centralized venues even during a 32% drawdown. That is not distribution. That is absorption. ETF flows: $3.79B bled in November, then reversed with a $524M single-day inflow. Outflow climaxes look exactly like this at inflection points Miner reserves: 1.803M BTC, multi-year lows. Post-halving stress forced ~24K BTC in November sales. They are structurally weaker, not stronger. Issuance keeps falling Funding rates: 0.0071%, barely positive. Leverage has been flushed, not added. No euphoria, no excess On one side: short-term holders, retail panic, stressed miners, levered traders exiting at losses On the other: long-term holders controlling 75% of supply, spot ETFs treating dips as accumulation windows, corporates and sovereigns building strategic reserves, shrinking exchange balances, falling issuance This is not what tops look like. This is what finite supply meeting structural demand looks like when weak hands transfer coins to entities that never market-sell If you believe STH MVRV below 1.0, record-low exchange reserves, post-halving supply compression, and institutional bid reversion is bearish, you are betting this is the first cycle in Bitcoin’s history where capitulation plus structural accumulation does not resolve higher I will take the other side of that bet The asymmetry is not in the chart. It is in the ownership transfer happening beneath it $BTC

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