Bitcoin's total market value has returned to the 8th position among global assets, with prices still oscillating at high levels. Off-market sentiment has shifted from panic to cautious optimism, more of an expectation of 'after a big drop, will there be a wave of recovery' rather than a confirmed new round of a major bull market.
KOLs (such as Banmuxia and others) have publicly emphasized that the probability of around 80,000 US dollars being the 'stage bottom' is increasing, but he has also repeatedly adjusted his own idea of the 'bottom' before. This kind of viewpoint seems more like finding anchor points for emotions, rather than being a trading signal that can be used for all-in bets.
Multiple Bitcoin-related companies continue to increase their holdings or make efforts: B HODL has bought 2 more BTC, raising its holdings to approximately 155 BTC, viewing Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, while also earning money through lightning network operations; these 'small Bitcoin treasury stocks' are quietly expanding.
Bitcoin media and conference giant BTC Inc has appointed Brandon Green as the new CEO, revealing that revenue for the first 9 months of this year is approximately $61.9 million, a year-on-year increase of about 140%. The continued expansion of Bitcoin Magazine and global conferences indicates that the 'content and conference business' surrounding BTC is developing rapidly in this cycle.
In the DeFi space, 1inch has released a report on a 'liquidity crisis': 80%-95% of the funds in mainstream DEX pools are actually idle, and many retail LPs not only fail to earn fees but also suffer overall losses due to impermanent loss; the Aqua protocol launched by 1inch attempts to serve multiple strategies with the same funds to improve capital efficiency.
The 1inch team wallet withdrew about 6.01 million 1INCH from Binance in the past several hours, once again 'supporting the floor'; however, based on historical experience, team withdrawals may indicate a long-term bullish outlook or be for other purposes. A single action is difficult to directly infer pricing conclusions and is more suitable as a sentiment reference.
A '1 in 180 million probability event' occurred in Bitcoin mining: an enthusiast with only 6 TH/s of computing power solo mined a block through the Solo CK mining pool, receiving approximately 3.146 BTC in rewards, worth about $260,000 at current market prices. This feels more like a 'lottery win' and reminds small miners that in today's high-computing environment, solo mining is more about sentiment than a stable business model. CoinDesk+1
XRP has been impacted by significant whale sell-offs, with nearly 200 million sold in the last 48 hours. Coupled with an overall market correction, the price has been pushed into the extremely oversold zone on technical indicators; at the same time, the newly launched XRP ETF is performing well, forming a structure of 'spot selling while institutions slowly buy'. Short-term volatility remains high, and retail investors looking to buy the dip need to be psychologically prepared for fluctuations.
Coinbase's derivatives business plans to launch 7×24 hours perpetual contracts with a 5-year expiration for a batch of altcoins such as SHIB, BCH, and DOGE, indicating that mainstream compliant exchanges are increasing their tool offerings for 'sentiment coins/established altcoins'. However, leveraged products themselves amplify volatility and liquidation risks, which may not be suitable for most novices.
A report analyzing Strategy (MSTR)'s Bitcoin balance sheet indicates that after this round of Bitcoin retracement, the company's overall holdings are close to breakeven. However, there is currently no immediate risk of liquidation or default. The real test will come in 18 months when convertible bonds mature; if the market remains depressed during that time, their refinancing costs may increase.
DeFi research also reminds us that currently about $12 billion of DeFi liquidity is in a 'lying flat' state, with more than half of retail LPs actually losing money. This structural issue is far more worthy of long-term attention than short-term price fluctuations.
Alpha and airdrop activities continue to be lively: various social games on the Sui chain and trading competitions are emerging, with thresholds including trading volume, points, and portfolio returns. The potential rewards and risks are both high, and it essentially remains a 'high-volatility gamble', more suitable as a small position experiment rather than a primary profit-making method.
Overall, today presents a combination of 'macro sentiment tightening + institutional slow positioning + high volatility speculation from retail investors'. The Bitcoin narrative has not fundamentally changed, but both short-term prices and sentiment are extreme.
Just a reminder: don't rush to go all in just because you see 'the bottom of the stage' or 'a great buying point'; timing and position are always more important than catching the lowest point.
