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-35% since.
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BITCOIN CYCLE UPGRADE: THE HALVING IS NO LONGER IN CHARGE
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US BANKS, MILEI AND THE $20B MIRAGE US media spent weeks reporting that Wall Street and Washington were lining up a twenty billion dollar lifeline for Argentina if Javier Milei stayed the course on “shock therapy.” Now Reuters, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports that the big three banks have quietly shelved that twenty billion package and are talking about a five billion short term facility instead, after the midterm votes are counted and Milei’s mandate is secured. Nothing illegal. No secret contract. Just the cold logic of creditors who reprice risk the moment their objective is met. Argentina is still carrying debt close to eighty percent of GDP, coming off inflation that peaked near three hundred percent in 2024 before falling toward the forty percent range this year. Reserves cover little more than a month of imports. A cut from twenty to five billion may sound technical in New York. In Buenos Aires it can mean a weaker peso, harsher cuts, a shorter fuse for unrest. Here is the real lesson, for every emerging democracy watching: If your recovery plan is built on promises from foreign private banks, your ballot is not fully sovereign. Their support is tactical, conditional and revocable at the moment it becomes most valuable to you. Build institutions that can survive when the foreign money blinks.
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The S&P 500 is not a broad market anymore. It is a seven-stock trade. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla now make up roughly one third of the entire index. One chip maker alone, Nvidia, is about 7 percent of the S&P 500, the same weight as the smallest two hundred plus companies combined. Every teacher pension, every passive 401(k), every “safe” index ETF is now riding on the same handful of AI giants. When those earnings beat, everyone looks like a genius. If a single story breaks, the whole index catches the flu. This is not just a valuation question. It is a concentration question. A market that advertises five hundred companies is giving you effective exposure to fewer than ten, while trillions in passive money keep mechanically buying more of what has already gone up. If you hold the S&P 500, you are making three hidden bets: 1. AI capex keeps compounding 2. Antitrust and regulation stay toothless 3. One stock’s stumble will not freeze global risk appetite If any of those fail, diversification will turn out to have been an illusion. $BTC
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Bitcoin, Projected Path Forward (white arrow) To those thinking we are still in a bull market, consider this: Not only did we break below the 50-week moving average (pink line), we are currently around the 100-week moving average! (blue line) It's fine to close once below the 50-week MA if it bounces back above quickly, but it hasn't even come close. Tomorrow is Sunday and that will mark the second close below the 50-week MA. Two consecutive closes below the 50 wk in the past have signalled the start of a bear market every time. However, due to the grossly oversold nature of BTC right now, I think a pretty epic relief rally is coming (white arrow) that will last 4-8 weeks, once the bottom is done forming. I use the term "relief" rally very carefully, as it means I think the top is most likely in for the cycle. Would love to be wrong on that and I am with you wanting another leg up. This post isn't made to be a bear or to be negative, it's to look at what is in front of us and what the most likely outcome could be. Obviously I could be wrong making a prediction so far out, but it's my base case currently. Just know that I will be happiest if the market continues making new ATHs. $BTC
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🚨XRP FUTURES SKYROCKETED ON BIT MEX! $XRP futures activity on Bit MEX exploded by 2,668% in one day, hitting $100.57M in volume, as per UToday. Today, it’s still elevated at nearly 600% in the past 24 hours. #xrp
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