⚡ Fed New York "pivoting" to rate cuts – December probability skyrockets
The recent statement from Fed New York President John Williams caught the market by surprise by reopening the possibility of rate cuts in December, pushing the probability from 30% to over 70% in just one day.
However, organizations like Scotiabank and Jefferies believe that a cut is not guaranteed. If the vote were to be held right now, the Fed could be divided:
• Scotiabank: 8 support a cut of 25bps – 1 supports a cut of 50bps – 2 want to keep it unchanged.
• Jefferies: predicts the outcome leans towards a cut of 25bps, but the majority is very thin (7–5).
The division reflects a major debate within the Fed:
• Dovish group: weak labor market → needs rate cuts.
• Hawkish group: inflation remains persistent → should not ease yet.
Important data such as NFP and CPI for November will only be released after the FOMC meeting on 9–10/12, forcing the Fed to make decisions in a "data blind" state.
🎯 Conclusion: The probability of a rate cut in December has surged, but consensus within the Fed is very fragile – the decision could be much tighter than market expectations.$BTC $ETH $SOL
