Yesterday, the biggest harm to the market was not the continued decline of the cryptocurrency market hitting new lows, but rather the U.S. stock market opening high and then dropping, which was a false move, a typical Bull Trap. This has completely dispelled the last glimmer of hope in the market. As the saying goes, you can't establish something new without breaking the old; since this is the case, it may actually be a good thing. Rather than taking two steps forward and three steps back, it’s better to get it done all at once. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has always been to move in and out quickly, rejecting pullbacks when prices rise and not looking back. During declines, the same logic applies with no rebounds, moving down in one go. It really confirms that the U.S. stock market is a leading indicator.

Now that the market has dropped to this level, it's time to face reality and stop trying to catch the bottom on the left side; it really requires the sentiment to be fully released first, and then liquidity to shift from contraction to expansion. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is just beginning to show signs of bottoming out. Once Bitcoin stops its sharp decline and the U.S. stock market completely drops to a low point, Bitcoin may then act as a leading indicator to guide U.S. capital in rebounding.

Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December by CME has dropped from 41.6% to 35.5% again; this psychological adjustment in expectations is probably the real reason for today's decline.

The subsequent trading plan should be as follows:

Phase 1 (Now): The cryptocurrency market continues to探底, and the U.S. stock market begins to补跌 (de-bubble).

Phase 2 (底): The cryptocurrency market first stops declining, entering a deadlocked period (liquidity is exhausted, but selling pressure is also exhausted). The U.S. stock market might still be oscillating in search of support.

Phase 3 (反转): Macroeconomic data finally shows a turnaround (for example, rising unemployment forces the Federal Reserve to soften its stance), Bitcoin, being lightweight and sensitive to liquidity, will start to rebound 1-2 weeks earlier than the U.S. stock market. $BTC $ETH $币安人生 #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调 #币安合约实盘