Bitcoin's "plunge" this month raises the question: is it time to buy the dip?
The answer is clear: it is certainly not the best time. Occasional weak rebounds are by no means reversal signals; this is the result of multiple factors overlapping.
In the past two years, Bitcoin has ceased to be an independent "lone wolf" in its rise and fall and is now deeply linked to US tech stocks and AI concept stocks.
Recently, the US stock market has weakened, and the global economy is slowing down, making AI and tech stocks a major area for institutional cashing out. Institutions always calculate the "pros and cons"; once key levels are breached, they strictly stop loss and exit, and will not buy the dip; Bitcoin ETFs are highly correlated with these stocks, so when institutions sell stocks to cash out, they often sell Bitcoin as well, creating a "chain reaction of selling."
In contrast, retail investors are always caught in the inertia of "buying more as prices fall," hoping to catch the lowest point; however, institutions are the "discipline models" that exit when trends break, waiting for the overall situation to clarify before entering the market.
Moreover, institutions have just dumped their chips at high levels and have no time to repurchase; relying on retail funds cannot push up the price of Bitcoin at all - the real bottom requires several months of consolidation and accumulation.
The news front is also not optimistic: the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December is only 40%, and rate cuts are a long-term cycle. The space for speculation previously driven by "rate cut expectations" is now gone, leaving only a wait-and-see sentiment.
Looking at the cycles and sentiment: Bitcoin's "halving cycle" every four years (halving → supply contraction → speculative boom → crash) is the core logic of its price; a halving in April 2024 followed by a peak in October aligns with historical rhythms.
Although Wall Street's entry has broken old patterns, the current environment is poor, and Wall Street will also take a risk-averse wait-and-see approach.
Therefore, there is no need to rush to "go all in on the dip"; the key is to "patiently wait in ambush." The market is not lacking in opportunities; what is lacking is the resolve to hold onto "bullets" before the bottom arrives - blindly entering the market will only lead to accumulating chips at low points, leaving no strength to fight back when the real opportunity comes. @鲸鱼极致操盘
