Brothers, this is serious, those bastards at the Federal Reserve caused trouble again last night!!!
Last night's meeting minutes came out, and wow, the internal arguments were like market vendors fighting over discounted eggs!
Officials supporting a rate cut in December are being pressed down and rubbed into the ground.
"Hawkish" big shots shouted with their hands on their hips: "Inflation isn't dead yet, who dares to cut interest rates?"
As a result, the market took a look, and the probability of a rate cut in December plummeted to 33%, while the probability of no rate cut soared to 67%.
What's even more outrageous is that the beautiful Department of Labor has thrown in the towel: October employment data? None! Why?
The government previously shut down and slacked off, the data can't be made up, and the release was directly canceled!
By the time the November data is combined and released, the Federal Reserve's meeting will already be over.
Looks like the gentlemen have to make decisions in the dark, all based on feeling!
Oh my, the world is really a group of amateurs playing house!
However, brothers, although interest rate cuts are making a lot of noise, stopping quantitative tightening is a matter of concern.
Everyone actually unanimously raised their hands to pass—next month we will hit the brakes!
The reason is simple and brutal: "If we continue to shrink, the financial system will collapse!"
After all, interest rates are so high they could break the sky; no one wants to take the blame.
However, QT has stopped, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is still as high as 6.6 trillion USD, which is significantly larger than before the pandemic.
An official complained: "This big guy takes up space, distorting the market!"
On the other hand, immediately retorted: "If you can do it, go ahead? The economy is currently inflated, it needs to be supported this way!"
Bai Ge believes that the big shot is currently in a dilemma. They dare not ease up, nor can they withdraw.
It forcefully puts the Federal Reserve in a split performance!
Look, as soon as the Federal Reserve hesitated, the big cake performed a free fall on the spot!
With a bang, it smashed through 89,000 USD, creating a new low in 7 months.
Short-term holders are collectively soaking in green soup—99% of people lost everything.
The losses are comparable to the catastrophic incident of FTX explosion in 2022.
Why is it so bad?
Interest rate cut expectations have cooled off: the Federal Reserve is not easing, and risky assets are all in trouble.
Leverage corpses are everywhere: a big bearish line at the end of October instantly blew up 820 million USD.
The bulls are crying out as they are trapped, and now Bitcoin rebounds above 90,000 USD?
Sorry, all those waiting to get out are just victims, with large selling pressures at every price level!
From a technical perspective, the 50-week moving average (102,800 USD) has become a heavy burden, but don't expect to reverse the trend here!
The monthly MA20 (about 90,000 USD) barely holds, but referring to January 2022, if it can't hold, it could be the next bottomless pit.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 66% this time, synchronized with the 2022 cycle. I wonder if they dare to buy again.
Just as the market is filled with despair, last night, AI warrior Nvidia unveiled a financial report bomb:
Quarterly sales of 57 billion USD, guidance for the next quarter is 65 billion USD!
This is equivalent to directly telling the world: "AI bubble? Doesn't exist, I earn real money!"
This news pulled the big cake up for a rebound, and US stocks cheered collectively.
But when the dollar index breaks 100, it feels like the sword of Damocles.
A strong dollar usually suppresses risky assets, and we must be cautious in the future.
As for the upcoming market, Bai Ge believes: from the current situation, the ETF cost line is the focus of market attention.
Most ETF buyers have costs around 82,000, and if it drops to this level, it could trigger a rebound.
In the short term, 90,000 USD is the emotional defense line of the market and also the watershed for the bulls and bears.
If there were those who cut losses before, or if there are still friends with positions,
Regardless of this position, 90,000 should be added to positions or built.
Tonight at 9:30, the September non-farm employment data will be released.
This report, which is highly anticipated by the market, will become crucial before the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting.
The only official employment "panorama" that can be referenced.
It directly affects whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next.
Let's take a look at the market's core expectations:
Currently, the market generally predicts that September's non-farm employment numbers will increase by 50,000.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Many institutions,
For example, Nationwide also believes that new employment will be in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 people.
This indicates that the weakness in the summer employment market may have continued into the fall.
If tonight's data meets or even falls below this weak expectation,
This may further confirm that the labor market is indeed cooling down.
This may push the centrist officials of the Federal Reserve to support interest rate cuts.
Institutions like Farm Credit and others also pointed out that while the market is cooling, it has not collapsed.
In a state of "low hiring, low layoffs."
However, brothers, there are always institutions with different views.
For example, Dominion Securities predicts that employment numbers may significantly increase by 100,000.
If the final data is much higher than expected, then the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may be suppressed again.
The most noteworthy is the unemployment rate, even if the unemployment rate only slightly rises by 0.1 percentage points,
For example, an increase from 4.3% to 4.4% may be interpreted by the market as a strong signal that the economy urgently needs support.
thereby significantly increasing expectations for interest rate cuts.
In simple terms, this report could become a "turning point" for market sentiment.
If the data meets or is weaker than expectations,
Then the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may be reignited.
According to some analysis, the weaker the data compared to expectations, the greater the market reaction.
Considering that previous data vacuum may amplify any disappointing data,
Asset prices may experience short-term fluctuations.
Conversely, if the data is significantly stronger than expected (for example, new employment reaches 80,000 to 100,000),
Then the Federal Reserve's justification for maintaining high interest rates becomes even more compelling, and the hope for interest rate cuts within this year will be even slimmer.
In summary, tonight's September non-farm data is crucial for determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
It will be one of the core bases for the Federal Reserve officials' decision-making.
In plain language: tonight's new employment numbers and unemployment rate,
This is the key point for whether the big cake breaks below 90,000 or rebounds from the bottom.#9月非农数据 #热点话题 #触底反弹 #市场回调 #Alphanetwork
