《November 20th Major Data Arrives: Employment and Wages Dual Lines Impacting the Market, Federal Reserve Path May Be Repriced》
From the macro data calendar for November 20th, tonight's U.S. employment data is almost entirely “red stars,” indicating a very high impact on the market, enough to influence the direction of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar, and crypto assets.
First, the September unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm employment are the absolute core of tonight's data. The market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while non-farm job additions are expected to jump from a previous value of 22,000 to 50,000, which is considered a “moderate improvement.” If the actual value is significantly higher than expected, it suggests that the labor market remains robust, and there is no pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Conversely, if the unemployment rate rises and non-farm data is weak, it will strengthen the logic of “economic cooling → increased likelihood of rate cuts,” benefiting risk assets.
Secondly, the initial jobless claims will serve as a “timely indicator” of employment trends. The expected value is 230,000; if it exceeds expectations, it indicates that employment is starting to loosen, the dollar may weaken, and funds may easily flow back into stocks and crypto assets. If the data is lower than expected, it shows that employment remains strong, which the market will interpret as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance.
Finally, average hourly wage growth is also crucial. The year-on-year expectation is 3.7% and month-on-month is 0.3%. Wages are a fundamental driver of inflation, and if salaries rise significantly above expectations, it will be seen as “persistent inflation,” which is bearish for risk assets; if wages are below expectations, it indicates a slowdown in inflation pressure, opening up space for rate cuts.
In summary:
If unemployment rate ↑, non-farm ↓, wages ↓ → Rate cut expectations rise, risk assets benefit
If both employment and wages are above expectations → Federal Reserve continues hawkish, market volatility increases
Tonight's data will become the most important preliminary signal before the December interest rate meeting, and the short-term fluctuations in the crypto market may concentrate within 30 minutes after the release. Traders are advised to closely monitor the directional choices at the moment the data is released and manage their positions well.
The strength or weakness of employment will be the only main line of the market tonight.
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