🚨 Macro Alert: The Next Crisis
“The next crisis is not runaway inflation — it is stable disequilibrium.”
Everyone is stuck on the lazy narrative: “global stimulus = inevitable inflation.” That’s 1970s thinking applied to a 2025 world.
Here’s the reality:
💸 US deficits ~6% of GDP
🇯🇵 Japan injecting $110B
🇨🇳 China engineering $1.4T local debt rescue
🌍 300+ rate cuts worldwide
…but the transmission mechanism is broken.
📉 Money velocity is structurally collapsed
👵 Aging, unequal populations hoard savings in financial assets
🤖 AI, automation, and digital platforms export deflation into services
Result? A tug-of-war:
⚖ Fiscal/political pressure pushes prices up
⚖ Technology, demographics, and debt pull them down
This system survives mathematically unsustainable yet politically frozen, jumping from one crisis response to the next.
💡 Key Takeaway:
Inflation is no longer guaranteed. It’s just one branch of a probability tree — others include stagflation, disinflation, or deflationary bust.
The most dangerous position today? Being certain.
#MacroAlert #GlobalMarkets #FinancialCrisis2025 #RiskManagement
