After a few years of contracting, I have some insights I would like to share and discuss with everyone. Perhaps my experience isn't the best, but I hope everyone can offer guidance. Thank you again.
Main Strategy:
Multi-timeframe Analysis: I never look at just one timeframe. I usually start with the weekly chart to determine the long-term trend, then look for the main direction on the daily chart, and finally find specific entry points on the 4-hour or 1-hour chart.
· Trend Following and Mean Reversion Combined:
· In a trending market: Use moving averages (like EMA20/50), trend lines, and high-low point structures to judge the direction, go with the trend, and enter on pullbacks.
· In a ranging market: Use Bollinger Bands, RSI, and other indicators to buy at support levels and sell at resistance levels, performing range trading.
· Price Action and Key Levels: This is the core of my decision-making process. I pay close attention to support and resistance levels, as well as classic candlestick patterns that appear near these levels, such as Pin Bars, Engulfing Patterns, Inside Bars, etc. These signals provide insights into market trends or analysis. My personal view on the market's future is that, on a macro level: the current cryptocurrency market is highly correlated with U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks) and global liquidity (U.S. dollar interest rate policy). Whether the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle has ended and when it will start cutting rates are key factors influencing the overall market risk appetite.
· Bitcoin Itself:
· Halving Narrative: Next year will bring clues for market sentiment and potential reversals/continuations.
