Bluechip
--
Bitcoin is about 1 day away from the "Death Cross".
The good, the bad and the ugly:
- MEGAPHONE PATTERN -
$BTC just bounced exactly from the lower bounds of the massive megaphone pattern (shown in yellow). It will either bounce strong from here or test it again during the upcoming "death cross" (see below). BTC has perfectly respected this megaphone pattern thus far. We would not want to see it break below. That would be very bearish since we are already below the 50 week moving average.
- DEATH CROSS -
$BTC is about 1 day away from the "Death Cross" (the 50 day SMA crossing below 200 day SMA) [blue line dropping over white line]. The "Death Cross" is a timing element for when the bottom might be in. Will it mark the next bottom, as it has done before? We are very close now. I think we'll get a strong bounce, following it.
- 50 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE -
We need to see a recovery of the 50 week moving average [pink line]. Using weekly candles, it's fine if BTC wicks below the 50 wk MA, but we do not want to see successive closes below this line. If BTC closes below it for 2+ weeks then we can assume the bear market is likely upon us (more likely than not, at that point).
- GLOBAL M2 vs BTC -
Global M2 vs BTC is a bearish chart due to the large decoupling. I've been saying that since Sept.
BTC has decoupled from Global M2 correlation for many months now, which is the TYPICAL BEHAVIOR AT ALL PREVIOUS CYCLE TOPS. I wrote about that back in September
I've noticed quite a few other accounts continue to show the M2 chart with the wrong analysis-- They pretend its saying BTC will "catch up" to M2, disregarding the end-of-cycle topping phenomenon that it is showing. They don't know what they're talking about. Read the post above which explains more fully. I've kept a steadfast opinion on this since September, while others continue to mindlessly share this chart.
- GOLD vs BTC -
Gold vs BTC is a bullish chart, due to the large move that gold saw recently. BTC tends to follow gold, with a delay. With the gold chart shifted ahead by 80 days, BTC is just about at the point (mid November) where it should begin following gold's move up, if it is going to do so (and not break correlation like M2 did, which is also possible). I find this interesting when combined with the "death cross" above, which also shows a move up should be coming very soon, and the bounce from the lower range of the megaphone pattern.
- MY THOUGHTS / SUMMARY -
In the short term, I think we are due for a fairly BIG BOUNCE soon.
This would rally alts a lot, too. The bigger question is whether that big bounce results in new ATHs for BTC or whether it's just a relief rally in an otherwise bear market. I continue to hold a predominance (96%) of my portfolio in $BTC due to this uncertainty. Alts will bleed more than BTC if it's truly a bear market, so this is a protective mechanism. I still think new ATHs late Dec or January is the main case, but we're at an inflection point. Bottom line: Nobody knows, even if they say they do. We're all making our best guess.
Another possibility is a short term bear market-- a cool-off period with a lesser drop (50%?) than a typical bear market, followed by another rally in 2026, following the ISM (the "business cycle"), where a true top is formed. I give this outcome about 15% odds.
Each time bitcoin climbs and then consolidates in a new higher range, the odds increase that it is a cycle top. Each time we hold on longer, our risk increases. I'm still holding, as I think we'll either make a new ATH later this year/early 2026-- or maybe the double-top scenario in mid 2026. So, I will hold on, waiting for actual euphoria, where it becomes safer to take profits. I want to see true overheatedness if I'm going to risk selling any of my BTC with the intention of buying back in, lower, at a later point. I don't think BTC has given us that euphoric, overheated signal this cycle due to its stair-stepping nature. So, I will be patient and wait for a more clear signal. This is just how I'm approaching it. I may have to wait many months, or even another full cycle, if I am wrong. I am prepared for this outcome. But I personally won't sell on the back of a non-euphoric, non-blow-off top. I feel this puts too much risk on the trade.
by: colincrypto
#MarketPullback
- MEGAPHONE PATTERN -
$BTC just bounced exactly from the lower bounds of the massive megaphone pattern (shown in yellow). It will either bounce strong from here or test it again during the upcoming "death cross" (see below). BTC has perfectly respected this megaphone pattern thus far. We would not want to see it break below. That would be very bearish since we are already below the 50 week moving average.
- DEATH CROSS -
$BTC is about 1 day away from the "Death Cross" (the 50 day SMA crossing below 200 day SMA) [blue line dropping over white line]. The "Death Cross" is a timing element for when the bottom might be in. Will it mark the next bottom, as it has done before? We are very close now. I think we'll get a strong bounce, following it.
- 50 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE -
We need to see a recovery of the 50 week moving average [pink line]. Using weekly candles, it's fine if BTC wicks below the 50 wk MA, but we do not want to see successive closes below this line. If BTC closes below it for 2+ weeks then we can assume the bear market is likely upon us (more likely than not, at that point).
- GLOBAL M2 vs BTC -
Global M2 vs BTC is a bearish chart due to the large decoupling. I've been saying that since Sept.
BTC has decoupled from Global M2 correlation for many months now, which is the TYPICAL BEHAVIOR AT ALL PREVIOUS CYCLE TOPS. I wrote about that back in September
I've noticed quite a few other accounts continue to show the M2 chart with the wrong analysis-- They pretend its saying BTC will "catch up" to M2, disregarding the end-of-cycle topping phenomenon that it is showing. They don't know what they're talking about. Read the post above which explains more fully. I've kept a steadfast opinion on this since September, while others continue to mindlessly share this chart.
- GOLD vs BTC -
Gold vs BTC is a bullish chart, due to the large move that gold saw recently. BTC tends to follow gold, with a delay. With the gold chart shifted ahead by 80 days, BTC is just about at the point (mid November) where it should begin following gold's move up, if it is going to do so (and not break correlation like M2 did, which is also possible). I find this interesting when combined with the "death cross" above, which also shows a move up should be coming very soon, and the bounce from the lower range of the megaphone pattern.
- MY THOUGHTS / SUMMARY -
In the short term, I think we are due for a fairly BIG BOUNCE soon.
This would rally alts a lot, too. The bigger question is whether that big bounce results in new ATHs for BTC or whether it's just a relief rally in an otherwise bear market. I continue to hold a predominance (96%) of my portfolio in $BTC due to this uncertainty. Alts will bleed more than BTC if it's truly a bear market, so this is a protective mechanism. I still think new ATHs late Dec or January is the main case, but we're at an inflection point. Bottom line: Nobody knows, even if they say they do. We're all making our best guess.
Another possibility is a short term bear market-- a cool-off period with a lesser drop (50%?) than a typical bear market, followed by another rally in 2026, following the ISM (the "business cycle"), where a true top is formed. I give this outcome about 15% odds.
Each time bitcoin climbs and then consolidates in a new higher range, the odds increase that it is a cycle top. Each time we hold on longer, our risk increases. I'm still holding, as I think we'll either make a new ATH later this year/early 2026-- or maybe the double-top scenario in mid 2026. So, I will hold on, waiting for actual euphoria, where it becomes safer to take profits. I want to see true overheatedness if I'm going to risk selling any of my BTC with the intention of buying back in, lower, at a later point. I don't think BTC has given us that euphoric, overheated signal this cycle due to its stair-stepping nature. So, I will be patient and wait for a more clear signal. This is just how I'm approaching it. I may have to wait many months, or even another full cycle, if I am wrong. I am prepared for this outcome. But I personally won't sell on the back of a non-euphoric, non-blow-off top. I feel this puts too much risk on the trade.
by: colincrypto
#MarketPullback
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