Bitcoin — the flagship of the crypto world and a symbol of financial freedom for millions — might not be as invincible as many believe. According to analyst Justin Bons, founder of Cyber Capital, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be heading toward a potential collapse between 2031 and 2036.
In a recent post on X, Bons outlined why he believes Bitcoin faces a dangerous road ahead. His argument starts with simple math: as Bitcoin undergoes each halving, the block reward given to miners keeps shrinking. By his calculations, the 2036 reward would fall to 0.39 BTC per block — translating to roughly $2.3 billion per year in total security funding at current prices.
Here’s the problem: if Bitcoin’s market cap reaches into the trillions by then, Bons argues that $2.3 billion simply won’t be enough to defend the network. This underfunded “security budget,” he warns, could open the door to 51% attacks — scenarios where an entity gains majority control of the network and manipulates transactions. Once unthinkable, Bons suggests this could become technically and financially viable as incentives for honest mining weaken.
But the issues go deeper than economics.
Bons criticizes Bitcoin’s governance rigidity, specifically the unwillingness of Bitcoin Core developers to consider solutions such as:
increasing the block size
allowing minimal inflation beyond the 21 million limit
exploring new economic models to sustain mining security
This stubbornness, he says, is the same force that fueled the 2015–2017 community split — and could spark an even more damaging fracture in the future.
And then comes quantum computing — the wildcard.
While still emerging, quantum technology could eventually break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses, particularly older wallets. Opinions vary:
Google’s Craig Gidney estimates quantum risk between 2030–2035
Others, like David Carvalho and Chamath Palihapitiya, warn the threat could appear within five years
Worst-case scenario? Up to 30% of all existing BTC could be exposed.
Bons’ message is clear: unless Bitcoin adapts, it could face a breaking point within the next decade. For believers who view Bitcoin as untouchable “digital gold,” his prediction is a challenging one.
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