$BTC $ETH 2025-11-12, yesterday I suggested everyone to do breakthrough trades or to make trend trades on breakthrough failures. Yesterday, after waiting all day without seeing any signs from the north, I directly entered a short position and went to sleep. Today, this 3-day line is very important. If it continues to move south, it indicates that the fifth wave of decline is about to start. However, considering past experiences, the time for this sideways consolidation is not sufficient, so it might be better to treat this range as a box area of 3650-3150, lasting 2-3 weeks, and then the fifth wave of decline will start, temporarily targeting around 2600. However, the five-wave pattern might end early before reaching this position, so I suggest that every time it touches the top, aim for 2600, and every time it touches the bottom, aim for a new high. But if there are key resistance levels encountered along the way, take some profits and let the remaining position aim for a breakthrough. As for Bitcoin, the current level is relatively clearer, while the altcoin still remains in a following state. Therefore, moving forward, we might focus mainly on Bitcoin and just trade the altcoin accordingly. This way, it will be simpler moving forward; just trade according to this box, and it should oscillate widely until the end of the month or even early next month. It will only recover once it breaks out of the box top or the fifth wave completes its southward spike.

Summary: For now, treat it as a wide box to trade, 3150-3650. The top is basically confirmed, but the bottom needs one more wave down for confirmation. As long as this bottom test is confirmed, the validity of this box can be established. Then for the next half month, just trade according to the box, and wait until the end of the month to observe where it goes. Based on the current market situation, it should just reach the top by the end of the month and then attempt to break through 3680. However, unless there is some positive news, it is likely to be a false breakout, followed by a waterfall decline completing the five waves and then consolidating at the bottom. Various positive news will start to drive prices up in mid to late December, and the speed of the rally should be quite fast.

Bitcoin box: 98000-107500 (five-wave target 91000→83000)

Altcoin box: 3150-3650 (five-wave target 2700→2250)