After the purge of the long positions lasting from 11/10 - 1/11, this is the current state of the market:
> The market kills and then revives. Both long and short positions are forced to buff more armor to endure.
> The summer ICO returns with the public sale of Monad led by Coinbase. This is a huge leap for Coinbase as it seems the SEC has unlocked access for American retail investors and CEX exchanges, aiming to attract capital flows from the largest gambling arena on the planet.
> The market after the x402 trend and ancient coins (privacy) continues to run out of toys. The cash flow from on-chain is returning to CEX to long/short.
In summary, in the next phase, both long and short positions must play by the house rules, so do not try to take revenge on the market by shorting everything to zero.
At this point, it is still early to mention an uptrend, but it is not too late to think about a downtrend.
In my view, summer 2026 will be the time for a big short on Bitcoin, so for now, the market will continue to run up for Bitcoin along with a selected few altcoins.
The reasons can be found in the next two 3-month candle formations of BTC.
May 15, 2026, will be an important milestone, marking the shift in the landscape after a 4-year cycle.
source: Richard Đặng
