An objective review of the recent trends $ZEC and my judgment on the subsequent market.
Current price: $548, currently the price has retreated to key support after peaking at 700.
From the low of September 6 at $32.1, it has risen approximately 1610%, with a market cap returning to the top 15 globally. This round of increase ranks among all mainstream currencies, second only to a few meme coins.
Core driving factors:
The fifth halving is expected to occur around November 17
Current daily output ≈900 ZEC, reduced to ≈450 ZEC after halving, selling pressure directly halves. The average return rate after the historical four halvings exceeds 300% over six months.
The balance of the Shielded Pool has first broken through 30% (approximately 4.9 million ZEC).
This is the highest proportion since its launch in 2016, indicating a significant increase in the real adoption of privacy features by users.
The macro privacy narrative is heating up.
The EU (Anti-Money Laundering Regulations) has made it clear that stricter measures will be taken against privacy coins starting in 2027, which has instead catalyzed a 'last train' sentiment ahead of time. Grayscale Zcash Trust shares have grown by 41% in nearly 30 days, and Arthur Hayes has publicly stated he is increasing his holdings.
Technical observation:
The weekly chart has formed the largest cup and handle pattern since 2019, having broken the neckline at $380 last week.
RSI (weekly) 77, at the same level as during the bull markets of 2017/2021, still has room for further overbought conditions.
Net outflows from exchanges over the past 14 days have accumulated to 412,000 ZEC, the highest since May 2021.
This round of ZEC's rise is supported by fundamentals, as well as the halving + narrative + capital resonance for a phase enhancement. Short-term sentiment is indeed overheated, but the mid-term logic remains valid.
I maintain the original allocation: mainly spot, lightly rolling for the phase before the halving, with a pullback at $480–$520. Privacy is not a meme, but it may be one of the most underestimated main lines of this bull market.
