Bitcoin’s Q4 Outlook Hinges on Macro Shift as Geopolitical Risks Deepen Sideways Drift
Bitcoin is battling significant macroeconomic headwinds that are stifling its price action, leaving its fourth-quarter performance hanging in the balance. The cryptocurrency needs a 10% rebound to reach the $114,000 quarterly breakeven point, following a sharp 20% drop from its record high.
Analysts point to U.S.–China trade tensions and the potential for a government shutdown as key geopolitical uncertainties driving risk-off sentiment. Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies, noted that these factors are creating hesitation in the market.
This caution has resulted in diminished liquidity and a "range-bound" market, confirmed by crypto options data, where neither bulls nor bears hold a firm advantage. Furthermore, systemic risks, including continuous institutional and DeFi defaults, are raising fears of a "prelude to a crisis." For Bitcoin to break out, a clear shift in the macro landscape—specifically contained inflation and improved liquidity—is essential.
