Will the end of the U.S. government shutdown be the switch for a crypto bull market? BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes presents a striking viewpoint: a liquidity turning point is approaching, and BTC and $ZEC will rebound strongly.

▎Liquidity Dilemma and Turning Point

Hayes points out the key contradiction: since July, BTC has fallen by 5%, while U.S. dollar liquidity has shrunk by 8%. The crux lies in the U.S. Treasury's TGA account continuously 'draining'. He predicts that once the government shutdown ends, the TGA balance will decrease, and the frozen liquidity will return to the market, bringing a rebound for crypto assets.

#隐私币生态普涨 #加密市场回调 ▎Hong Kong Opens Global Capital Channel

Hong Kong plans to issue virtual asset custody licenses and promote 'cross-border trading interconnection', allowing international platforms to share order books. This initiative is expected to connect global capital pools and introduce larger scale capital into the crypto market.

▎BTC Faces Technical Challenges

Delphi Digital data shows that November is a crucial turning point for BTC. If the bull market continues, $98,900 may become the low point for this month; if it falls below previous lows, it may confirm a bear market structure. The EMA indicator warns of a potential bearish crossover in mid-November.

▎Tightening Regulation, Stablecoins Moving Towards Transparency

Canada follows the U.S. GENIUS Act and will strictly regulate stablecoins in its 2025 budget, requiring issuers to maintain sufficient reserves. Stablecoins are transitioning from 'wild growth' into the era of compliance.

▎Bitmine's ETH Predicament

Bitmine emulates MicroStrategy by heavily buying ETH but falls into trouble due to the price crash. The company purchased 340,000 ETH at an average price of $3909, suffering a paper loss of over $13 billion, with its stock price dropping by 70%, becoming a cautionary tale of blind following.

▎National-Level Bitcoin Strategy

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly calls for the nation to establish Bitcoin reserves to address massive debt. This may signify a new stage in the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold'.

｜In-Depth Outlook｜

Hayes's 'liquidity return theory' has its logic, but the market is never driven by a single factor. The regulatory framework is taking shape, institutional strategies are diverging, and technical signals are conflicting—current markets are being pulled by multiple forces. The end of the government shutdown may release short-term liquidity, but to truly initiate a bull market, a fundamental shift in global macro confidence is still needed.

Is the end of the shutdown the switch for a bull market, or just another liquidity illusion? The market is waiting for answers.