ETH's current price is stuck at $3265, half an hour ago it dropped to around $3200, and now it's slowly climbing back up. As someone who has been monitoring the 1-hour chart, I need to adjust the lines I've drawn to provide some clear guidance for everyone.
News:
Recently, there haven't been any significant black swans; instead, there are positive developments: after the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, the staking volume has steadily increased, breaking 8 million last week, indicating that long-term investors recognize this 'blockchain foundation'; combined with the explosive growth of the Layer2 ecosystem, the TVL of these second-layer networks like Arbitrum and Optimism has risen by 15% monthly, and the demand for ETH as the 'gas fee father' hasn't decreased. More importantly, the heat around Bitcoin ETFs has slightly cooled down, and funds are starting to flow back into the second-largest, ETH. This is not just a wild guess; on-chain data shows that whales have net bought over 120,000 ETH in the last 3 days.
Technical analysis:
3200 is the recent 'small iron bottom' over the past half month. After the sharp drop here yesterday, the MACD green bars have shortened, and the RSI has climbed from the oversold zone, which is a typical stop-loss signal; the upper 3300 is the 5-day moving average resistance level. If it can break through with volume, there will be some breathing room in the short term.
My perspective: This wave of ETH is a 'washout, not a bear market.' There is fundamental support from the news, and if the technical level of 3200 holds, the probability of a short-term rebound is high. But don't get too excited and chase highs, as there are still trapped positions above at 3400, and a rapid rise could be a trap.
Operational advice:
Don't rush with an empty position, wait for a pullback to 3200-3230 to try a small long position, set a stop loss at 3180;
For those already holding, stay calm; initially aim for 3350, and consider adding after breaking through;
For those trapped at high positions, reducing some holdings near 3300 during the rebound can lower costs.
In the crypto circle, the biggest fear is chasing highs and cutting losses. ETH is currently in a 'squat and gather strength' phase. Don't be scared off by half-hour fluctuations; wait for the support level and news to align before taking action.
Do you think this rebound can break 3400? Let's discuss your positions and strategies in the comments. Blindly acting alone will never bring opportunities. Click on my avatar to follow me, and I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-level resources!
