The current global market is at an extremely delicate critical stage:

The US government is continuing its strike, the Federal Reserve has announced a pause in balance sheet reduction, the US banking system is experiencing liquidity tension, and short-term funding markets frequently trigger repurchase mechanisms, indicating signs of fund exhaustion within the dollar system. Liquidity is nearly stagnant, while the policy level has yet to release substantial easing signals. Meanwhile, China has adjusted its gold-related tax policies, canceling some value-added tax deductions, triggering a new round of market reflection on the direction of capital flight to safety.

Gold, the stock market, and commodities are generally sluggish, with risk assets lacking incremental funding support. At this time, the cryptocurrency market has shown slight movements in its silence, with long-dormant tokens like EOS and FIL becoming active, suggesting that some funds may be testing new liquidity outlets. The crypto space may be passively assuming the role of a "liquidity reservoir," and could potentially become a forward base for larger capital plans. The macro uncertainty is intensifying, and the market is generally in a cautious wait-and-see state.

From a technical perspective, ETH dipped to 3240 yesterday and has experienced a one-night recovery, currently stabilizing in the 3360-3370 range, showing some signs of a short-term bottoming. However, overall it still leans weak. If it can effectively break through the 3460-3500 range today, it is expected to open up a weekend recovery trend and attempt to impact the 3660-3800 range next week. Conversely, if the rebound lacks strength and market confidence has not recovered, then 3660-3800 may still become a short-term top, potentially triggering a new round of deep pullbacks to 2800-2600.

Based on fundamental and policy-level assessments:

• The Federal Reserve's pause in balance sheet reduction reflects that liquidity pressure has approached a critical point, but has not yet entered a substantial easing cycle;

• The US banking system is tight on funds, limiting institutions' risk exposure and leverage capacity;

• China's gold tax reform shows a structural adjustment in capital flight channels, indirectly affecting global risk appetite;

• Investor sentiment remains cautious, and the short-term market is more easily driven by news rather than trend-driven capital.

Overall, the current market is in a vacuum period and on the eve of a turning point. The crypto space may be able to temporarily absorb some liquidity release, but it is not yet enough to trigger a sustained trend. At this time, one should remain highly vigilant, control positions, strictly adhere to risk management, act in accordance with the trend, and avoid counter-trend operations.