11.6
Yesterday's rise in the risk market led many to believe it was due to the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown, but there is currently no clear information indicating that the two parties have reached a consensus. A more likely driving factor is the probability of the Supreme Court maintaining Trump's global tariffs dropping to 29%. If the tariffs are ruled illegal, U.S. companies will face lower supply chain costs, improved profits, and relief from inflationary pressures, which would be most beneficial for industries such as technology, semiconductors, and cross-border manufacturing.
BTC's turnover rate has decreased today, with early market sentiment being weak. However, as expectations of favorable tariffs and market consensus that the shutdown will be resolved next week emerge, sentiment for risk assets is improving.
BTC
Bitcoin fell below 100,000 yesterday, but by the closing, it was back above 100,000. Currently, the overall downward trend has not changed, and it will likely fluctuate around the range of 100,000 to 106,300. As long as it does not stabilize above 106,300, the risk remains. For today, if this position does not break below 102,300, there will be a rebound, with the rebound focusing on 105,500-106,300, support at 101,500-99,300, and resistance at 105,500-106,300.
ETH
Ethereum's larger cycle has not fully stopped declining. Currently, for the daily level rebound, it needs to stabilize above 3,680 to continue the bullish trend; otherwise, it will fluctuate around 3,367 to 3,685. For today, if the smaller level of 3,367 does not break, there will be a small rebound, with support at 3,367-3,280-3,166-3,030 and resistance at 3,479-3,556.
