the thing is, right now the markets need a lot of good triggers for any good moves. If there are good triggers then we might see a good potential from the market, and as the scenario is going on I expect that the cycle could be completed by either Q4 of 2025 or Q1 of 2026

Just now
The U.S. government suddenly announced!
On November 5, the U.S. Senate did not pass the temporary funding bill again on the 4th. The shutdown that started on October 1 is about to exceed the 35-day record set in 2018, becoming the longest in history.
The first to suffer are ordinary people, with 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 security screeners working without pay, and absentee rates soaring to 24 - 44%. On October 30, over 6,000 flights were delayed and 1,000 canceled, with Kennedy Airport having grounded flights.

The U.S. government shutdown is due to significant differences between the two parties on budget and other issues, and there have been multiple shutdowns for similar reasons in the past.

For the industry, the aviation sector suffers greatly, with daily losses potentially exceeding ten million dollars; for the market, stock market volatility may reach 3%; for ordinary people, travel times increase significantly.
The two parties are calculating their own interests, the red line is not to touch core principles, and the bargaining chips are political influence; the government's appeal is to maintain operations, the constraint is fiscal rules, and the bargaining chip is policy tools.
Feasibility requires compromise between the two parties (no public data available), funding in place, and rule adjustments. The first obstacle is the significant differences between the two parties, the second is interference from interest groups, and the third is time pressure.

Suspense one: When can the two parties reach a compromise? Suspense two: How long will the shutdown last? Suspense three: How severe will the economic impact be?
What do you think, readers? Feel free to discuss in the comments.
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