If we look at the 4-year cycle of the crypto market, then theoretically the end of 2025 is the final stage of the growth cycle – in other words, it is the tail end of the bull season. The reality shows that both bull markets and bear markets are stages of 'post-perception' — only when everything becomes clear, do we realize where we are in the cycle.
When Bitcoin begins to adjust significantly, altcoin 'bounces' will often occur — prices will increase a few times, creating the illusion that the market still has opportunities. But in the end, they will still be swept along by BTC's downward trend. This is a familiar trap in the phase transition – from bull to bear.
Currently, many investors lean towards the view that the market is entering the early stages of a downturn, or may have quietly entered a winter.
BTC giảm hàng chục ngàn đô mỗi ngày là chuyện bình thường, thị trường rung lắc, wash out, retest… tất cả đều nằm trong kịch bản chuyển sóng.
However, from a macro perspective, the situation does not completely support a clear 'bear market' scenario: the FED has cut interest rates, combined with a quantitative easing (QE) policy – which means that the liquidity environment is still expanding. This is also the reason why the 'bull' side believes that the upcycle has not yet ended, it is just in a medium-term adjustment phase.
👉 Personally, I think: the market still has one last upward wave. It may not break new highs, but enough to create a strong recovery – a nice 'exit' opportunity before entering a true downturn.
Now is not the time to FOMO, nor to be overly pessimistic — just maintain a clear-headed position, observe the flow of money, and wait for a clearer reaction from Bitcoin.
And what about you?
Theo bạn — bull đã thật sự kết thúc chưa, hay chỉ là cú thở tạm thời trước làn sóng cuối?
